After 25 years, we have the first peace treaty agreement between Israel and an Arab country- in this case, the UAE. That makes allies (including in energy) out of two of the most powerful national lobbies in Washington. For energy, it is a geopolitical game-changer, but one that was bound to come about now that Israel is officially a major player in the global hydrocarbons game.
For Turkey, it is a nightmare scenario. Both the UAE and Israel have lined up on the side of General Haftar in the Libyan conflict and against the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). Turkey’s meddling in Libya is all about ensuring that it doesn’t get shut out from the oil and gas bonanza in the Mediterranean Sea. To that end, Turkey has redrawn the maritime border with Libya, and Egypt and Greece have responded (on the flip side of this conflict) by creating their own EEZ.
We have noted repeatedly that the Mediterranean is the next major oil and gas conflict zone, and a peace treaty between the UAE and Israel – unthinkable prior to Israel’s emergence as an energy power – all but guarantees that.
Now, Israel has boosted its alliance power many times over with the UAE – a peace treaty that will include energy cooperation. But while energy cooperation has played a role in this particular Arab-Israeli peace, even trickling down to the Palestinian issue, it will likely foment conflict elsewhere, particularly in Libya, and with Turkey.