Finansnyheder

VALUTAFONDEN: Høj privatgæld, høje huspriser og Danske Banks hvidvask sag truer Danmarks finansielle stabilitet

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IMF har netop afsluttet sin rapport om Danmarks økonomiske tilstand og prognose.

IMF roser den danske socialmodel og fremhæver et solidt jobmarked, vækst og høj levestandard:

Denmark’s economic performance, based on a model that prizes social
inclusion, continues to impress with high living standards. Growth remained solid in 2018, supported by domestic demand, with the economy operating above potential. The economy is projected to grow by 1.7 and 1.9 percent in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Læser man nærmere i rapporten kommer der mere dystre og alvorlige ridser i lakken frem. IMF advarer om at den høje danske privatgæld der primært er forårsaget af høje huspriser, i kombination med den store hvidvask sag i Danske Bank risikerer at underminere tilliden til det danske finansielle system, og dermed bringe den finansielle stabilitet i fare.

Den Internationale Valutafond
advarer om finansielle svagheder i dansk økonomi

A sharper than expected slowdown in Denmark’s main trading partners could slow export growth. A disorderly Brexit could weigh on the economy, notably through trade and supply chain disruptions. High household debt amid elevated house valuations remains a key vulnerability. The ongoing money laundering case could further affect confidence in the financial sector and undermine financial stability.

Valutafonden påpeger også på øget risiko i udlånsvæksten til virksomhederne, og skriver bl.a. at værktøjer bør anvendes for at styrke den finansielle styrke hvis risiko fortsat opbygges i det finansielle system:

The banking system is profitable, liquid and solvent, but pockets of
vulnerabilities remain. Lending surveys suggest that some banks are
relaxing credit standards for corporate loans
. To strengthen financial resilience, a combination of micro- and macroprudential tools should be considered to increase capital buffers, in addition to the Counter Cyclical Capital Buffer, if risks continue to build up.

Svagheder i det finansielle system på grund af høj gældsætning i ejendomsmarkedet, bør imødegås ved at reducere favorable skattefradrag og ved at promovere udbudet af ejendomme.

The housing market in Denmark is the major link between the economy and he financial sector. Vulnerabilities due to high household leverage amid elevated house valuations should be addressed by enhancing the macroprudential toolbox, reducing overly favorable tax incentives, and through policies to promote housing supply.

Du kan læse hele IMF rapporten her

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