When Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) took power at the beginning of the century, the principle that got hold of the country’s foreign policy was called ‘zero problems towards neighbors’. It received praise domestically as well as abroad. Fast forward nearly two decades and there nearly isn’t a conflict in Turkey’s near abroad where the aspiring regional power is not involved.

The fundamentals of Ankara’s clashes were years in the making before a trigger unleashed the current tensions. Turkey risked missing out on the energy bonanza in the Eastern Mediterranean which a ‘sea-grab’ maneuver should have prevented. Instead, it created a chain of conflicts and an increasingly hostile environment for Turkish interests.

Besides the trigger, the reasons behind the animosity are historical and political. Greece’s hostility is based on Turkey’s imperial past and the illegal invasion of Cyprus that has split the island until this day. Ankara’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and opposition to President el-Sisi has sown the seeds of confrontation with Egypt. Furthermore, Turkey’s continued denial of the Armenian genocide has ensured bitter relations with another neighbor.

The trigger

The discovery of major gas deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean is a promise of wealth that wasn’t equally distributed. The geological conditions have primarily favored Egypt, Israel, and to a lesser extent Cyprus. The aggressive and unilateral actions of Ankara have backfired as the remaining littoral states are increasingly united in their actions.

Primarily Cyprus and Greece are disadvantaged due to Turkey’s claim that disregards international law and brings it in conflict with a fellow NATO member and two EU states. The illegal maritime deal Ankara signed with the government in Libya’s Tripoli is the latest proliferation of Turkey’s aspiration to gain at the cost of others. Related: Big Oil Forced To Change Strategy After The Oil Price Crash

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Although it was Turkey’s initial goal to benefit from the massive energy wealth of the Eastern Mediterranean, the aggressive posturing has brought increased instability to North Africa and the Middle East. Turkish forces have entered the Libyan battlefield while certain sources claim that small numbers of the Egyptian army are deployed near Idlib to put pressure on Ankara.

An ideological battle

The military intervention in Libya was primarily motivated by the necessity to ensure the survival of the government in Tripoli which signed the maritime demarcation agreement. Turkey’s military success ensured warlord Haftar’s failure in capturing Tripoli and repelled his forces to the coastal city of Sirte.

The setback antagonized Egypt which was already locked in an ideological battle with Turkey over the latter’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood specifically and Islamic democracy in general. The parliament in Cairo recently approved the deployment of the army in neighboring Libya which would mark a serious escalation. Turkey, however, estimates that Egypt won’t risk getting involved due to the relative weakness of the army.

Syria’s growing role

Cairo is betting on multiple strategies to put pressure on Ankara without risking a confrontation in its direct neighborhood. Egypt’s assumed involvement in Syria, although minor, is a sign that Idlib could become a headache for Turkey.

Already several Arab states including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt have been developing ties with the Syrian Kurds. According to sources, the Kurdish delegations to these countries were headed by SDF commander Mazlum Kobane. The military nature of the diplomatic contacts shows the willingness of the parties to halt Turkey’s involvement in Arab countries. Related: Russia Looks To Lure Shell Into New Arctic Oil Project

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In addition, Cairo has been working on getting Syria to return to the Arab League. This would strengthen cooperation and coordination between Arab states in response to Turkey’s assertiveness in the region.

The Greco-Egyptian agreement

Ankara’s most recent moves in Libya and its illegal drilling activities in Greek and Cypriot waters have brought Athens and Cairo together. Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias secretly flew to Egypt to seal a strategic alliance with Cairo, which apparently took 15 years to conclude. Recent events, however, accelerated talks and strengthened the need for a demarcation agreement. Obviously, Ankara was quick to declare the arrangement ‘null and void’. 

Turkey is doubling down on its energy activities in the Eastern Mediterranean as another round of seismic research activities were announced in the disputed waters. Strengthened by a deal to keep refugees away from European shores and its indispensable strategic value to the West, Ankara feels that the EU and NATO eventually will cave to its demands. Therefore expect tensions to increase during the hot summer months as pressure mounts on all parties.

By Vanand Meliksetian for Oilprice.com

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