The one reason why the Fed should cut rates ‘four times’ over the next 12 months
James Bianco is out with a bullish call that could send stocks flying.
The market researcher predicts the Federal Reserve will cut rates not once, not twice — but multiple times starting in July.
His chief reason: Inflation is non-existent.
“Inflation is surprising them to the downside consistently, and the market is telling them that they can cut rates,” the Bianco Research president told CNBC’s “Trading Nation’ on Friday. “The market is pricing in four cuts over the next year —three over the next three [Fed] meetings.”
On Wednesday, the Fed indicated it’d be open to slashing rates next month. Stocks reacted by rallying to fresh highs. The S&P 500 is now on track for its best first half of the year since 1997.
“Trust the market. It wants a lot of rate cuts. It’s been saying that for months,” he said. “They’re saying, ‘Look, you’ve got room to lower rates. Lower the cost of capital and maybe provide more stimulus without the fear of inflation. So, do it.'”
Bianco, who calls himself a “market guy,” believes the Fed should and will listen to Wall Street.
“The Fed decides when to raise rates, and the market decides when to cut. And, the market is deciding that it is now time to cut, and is often the case, they drag the Fed kicking and screaming into it thinking they shouldn’t do it. But eventually they will,” he said.
He doesn’t believe the market is overestimating the possibility of cuts. According to Bianco, the current market atmosphere is showing striking similarities to the 1980s and 1990s when the Fed cut rates in response to a non-inflationary environment.
“Historically, that’s been a good thing for the stock market,” Bianco said.