Via MishTalk Winning trade wars is so easy that U.S. Set to Give Huawei Another 90 Days to Buy from American Suppliers. The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to extend a reprieve given to Huawei Technologies that permits the Chinese firm to buy supplies from U.S. companies so that it can service existing customers, two...
Via MishTalk Two days ago I noted Corbyn Seeks to Stop Brexit Via “Make Me Temporary PM” Pretty Please Offer. My ending comment was “There is little chance Corbyn’s ‘Make Me PM Pretty Please’ motion does anything but fall flat on its face. But if by some miracle it passed, I expect Johnson would refuse...
Via MishTalk Three Points December 2004: US Dollar Index 108, Gold $435 April 2009: US Dollar Index 108, Gold $883 November 2014: US Dollar Index 108, Gold $1182 Gold vs Trade-Weighted Dollar Index 1973-Present While gold generally moves opposite the dollar in day-to-day fluctuations, long term impacts are nonexistent. Here is the chart with the...
Via MishTalk Housing Starts Dive Led by Multi-Family, Revisions Negative Housing starts are down 4% in July with multi-family down 17.2% and single-family up 1.3%. Permits are up 8.4%. Let’s step back and make sense of it all. Expect Revisions My first thought at looking at the Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction Report for July...
Via MishTalk The headline sounds like it’s from “The Onion” but Trump seems serious. The Walls Street Journal reports President Trump Eyes a New Real-Estate Purchase: Greenland. In meetings, at dinners and in passing conversations, Mr. Trump has asked advisers whether the U.S. can acquire Greenland, listened with interest when they discuss its abundant...
Via MishTalk Make Me PM Pretty Please Desperation Sets In Should this motion actually succeed (it almost certainly won’t), Boris Johnson’s likely response would be to refuse to stand down until October 31. For starters the public is tired of this nonsense. More importantly, the Liberal Democrats refuse to go along. Rebel Tories Agree...
Via MishTalk Tale of Two Economies – Retail Sales Earlier today, in Eat, Drink, and Be Merry Shopping at Amazon I noted retail sales unexpectedly surged 0.7% in July fueled by Amazon, food, and drinks. Tale of Two Economies – Manufacturing The Fed’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July shows a completely different picture....
Via MishTalk Futures are up a bit this morning as of 1:00 AM central following yesterday’s massacre. However, bond yields are again lower. The 30-year long bond just crashed through the 2% level for the first time ever. Don’t Worry The Fed has everything under control. So does Trump, the ECB, Bank of Japan, China,...
Via MishTalk 30-Year Bond Yield Smashes Through Record Low The 30-year long bond yield crashed to 2.024% this morning and is now just a tad higher. The previous record low 30-year long bond yield of 2.10% was on July 8, 2016 shortly after the UK voted for Brexit (June 23, 2016). Long Bond Yield Down...
Via MishTalk Negative Yields “No Big Deal” Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan sees No Barriers to Prevent Negative Treasury Yields. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says he wouldn’t be surprised if U.S. bond yields turn negative. And if they do, it’s not that big of a deal. “There is international arbitrage going on in...
Via MishTalk Currency War Underway The Fed says this is a Mid-Cycle Adjustment not the beginning of a series of rate cuts. I strongly disagree. So does the bond market, and so does Alpine Macro. In One Two Three Four, I Declare A Currency War Alpine Macro discusses the trade war, currencies, gold, and interest...
Via MishTalk Trump changed his mind. So, what else is new? The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Retreats on Chinese Tariff Threats, Stocks Soar. The Trump administration abruptly offered China—and U.S. consumers—a reprieve from sweeping tariffs that were poised to hit on Sept. 1, sending stocks sharply higher and raising hopes for reviving stalled-out talks...
Via MishTalk Bloomberg reports SNB Likely to Follow Interventions With Interest-Rate Cut. The Swiss National Bank may have to do more than pump billions into foreign exchange markets into prevent the franc from appreciating to a damaging level. With data suggesting the central bank recently intervened after the currency rose to the highest since 2017...
Via MishTalk A tipping point has been reached. UK citizens are so sick of Brexit delays they just want Prime Minister Boris Johnson to get it over with. The Telegraph reports Boris Johnson has Public’s Support to Shut Down Parliament to Get Brexit Over the Line. The ComRes survey for The Telegraph found that 54...
Via MishTalk Bond Yields Resume Post-FOMC Crash Interestingly, the record low 30-year long bond yield was on July 8, 2016 shortly after the UK voted for Brexit (June 23, 2016). Recession Warning Bond yields scream “recession” loud and clear for the third time since 2000. Not even two rate cuts will end this inversion. Manufacturing...
Via MishTalk This morning, the German 3-month bond yield is -0.558% while the 10-year bond yield is -0.593. Thus 10-year bonds yield less than 3-month bonds (inversion), while the whole curve is negative. Never Cheaper to Borrow Meanwhile, Jyske Bank, the third-largest bank in Denmark announced it will Pay Customers to Take Out Mortgages by...
Via MishTalk It Must Be Serious The lie of the day award goes to Jean-Claude Juncker, the outgoing European Commission president who once famously stated, “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” On Saturday, Juncker warned the British Will be the ‘big losers’ in a No Deal Brexit. “If it comes to a hard...
Via MishTalk TruckingInfo reports Loadsmart and Starsky Robotics Make First-Ever Digital Freight Delivery Via Autonomous Truck According to the two companies, the integration of Loadsmart’s AI-powered pricing and load matching technology with Starsky’s API meant no human intervention was required. The historic initiative is part of a larger strategic partnership which paves the way for...
Via MishTalk The Telegraph reports Millions of Brexit 50p Coins to be Minted in Time for October 31. Millions of special 50p Brexit coins are to be minted and ready to spend in time to mark Britain’s exit from the European Union, under plans being drawn up by the Chancellor. Sajid Javid, who is also...
Via MishTalk Despite having attempted suicide once already, Epstein somehow was not on suicide watch. The result is as I expected Jeffrey Epstein Dead in Suicide at Manhattan Jail, Officials Say. Jeffrey Epstein, the financier who was long dogged by accusations of sexual abuse of girls and who was able to cultivate a stream of...