The high price of dollar safety
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The high price of dollar safety

Via Coppola Comment The world is saving like crazy. Corporations are building up cash mountains that they can’t or won’t invest in expanding their businesses. Individuals are building up pensions and precautionary savings. Governments, especially in developing countries, are building up FX reserves. The “savings glut,” as former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke dubbed it, shows...

Currency Wars and the Fall of Empires
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Currency Wars and the Fall of Empires

Via Coppola Comment This post was first published on Pieria in July 2013. I have re-posted it here on Coppola Comment because it now seems terribly, terribly timely.  I have been reading James Rickards’ book Currency Wars. In this, Rickards reviews the use of fiat currency over the course of the last century, and concludes...

The Abominable Laffer Curve
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The Abominable Laffer Curve

Via Coppola Comment It’s been pretty quiet in Lafferland since the Brexit referendum. All the talk has been of trade and sovereignty, not deregulation and tax cuts. But there’s nothing quite like a Tory leadership election to bring supply-siders out of hibernation. So here is Sajid Javid singing an old sweet song to attract the...

Yield curve weirdness
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Yield curve weirdness

Via Coppola Comment Yield curves have gone mad. Negative yields are everywhere, from AAA-rated government bonds to corporate junk. Most developed countries have inverted yield curves, and a fair few developing countries do too: (chart from worldgovernmentbonds.com) Negative yields and widespread yield curve inversion, particularly though not exclusively on safe assets. To (mis)quote a famous...

The Broken Contract
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The Broken Contract

Via Coppola Comment So the Lord God said to the serpent, “Because you have done this, cursed are you above all livestock and all wild animals! You will crawl on your belly and you will eat dust all the days of your life. And I will put enmity between you and the woman, and between your...

Why targeting productivity is a bad idea
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Why targeting productivity is a bad idea

Via Coppola Comment Last week I attended a workshop entitled “Enhancing the Bank of England Toolkit,” hosted by the Progressive Economy Forum. Presented at the workshop, and underpinning most of the debate, was this report from GFC Economics and Clearpoint Advisers, which was written for the Labour Party and first issued last June. The report...

Despair deaths and regional inequality
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Despair deaths and regional inequality

Via Coppola Comment I can’t stop looking at this table. Mortality rates in England rose between 2011-16 for teenagers and most working-age adults under 50: That’s bad enough. But what should give all of us pause is the reason that Public Health England (PHE) gives for rising mortality among young and middle-aged adults: Among people...

The Case for People’s Quantitative Easing
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The Case for People’s Quantitative Easing

Via Coppola Comment Last night, the Resolution Foundation hosted a debate to launch my book, “The Case for People’s Quantitative Easing”. A great panel consisting of Jagjit Chadha, Director of NIESR; Fran Boait, Executive Director of Positive Money; and James Smith, Research Director of the Resolution Foundation, debated my ideas with immense verve, ably moderated...

The Eurozone’s Long Depression
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The Eurozone’s Long Depression

Via Coppola Comment Sectoral balances can tell us so much about what is going on in an economy. Especially when they are expressed as a time series, as in this remarkable chart from the ECB: Although it is a time series, this is not a rate-of-change chart. The y axis is in billions of Euros,...

Dissecting the Eurozone’s (lack of) inflation
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Dissecting the Eurozone’s (lack of) inflation

Via Coppola Comment Eurozone inflation is in the doldrums again. After perking up to 1.7% in April, it slumped back to 1.2% in May. According to Bloomberg, this was “lower than expected”. But I wonder who, apart from the ECB, really expected anything else. Core inflation has been well below target for the last five...

European banks and the global banking glut
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European banks and the global banking glut

Via Coppola Comment In a lecture presented at the 2011 IMF Annual Research Conference, Hyun Song Shin of Princeton University argued that the driver of the 2007-8 financial crisis was not a global saving glut so much as a global banking glut. He highlighted the role of the European banks in inflating the credit bubble...