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Angry Bear » First-ever binding end to a border war: Missouri-Kansas UPDATED

Via Angry Bear (Dan here late….August 2 post) Kansas Governor Laura Kelly has just signed an executive order that prohibits state subsidies being used to move existing Missouri firms in four Missouri counties to three Kansas counties, which together make up the Kansas City metropolitan area. Unlike previous voluntary no-raiding deals, such as NY-NJ-CT, Council of...

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Angry Bear » The New US-Japan Trade Agreement

Via Angry Bear Lost in the shuffle this past week was one piece of good news for Trump: a tentative trad deal with Japan that he and Japan’s PM Shinzoe Abe signed in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting.  While it is largely a favorable deal, it does not do...

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Angry Bear » “Trump’s Call With the Ukrainian President”

Via Angry Bear The White House released this document on Wednesday, September 25, 2019. It details a July call between President Trump and President Zelensky of the Ukraine. About midway through it, there is a warning of the contents not being a “verbatim transcript.” I have taken some time to include the notes (red) which...

Angry Bear » August new home sales continue rebounding trend
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Angry Bear » August new home sales continue rebounding trend

Via Angry Bear Let me start out my look at this morning’s August new home sales report with my typical housing mantra: Interest rates lead sales Sales lead prices Prices lead inventory We saw all of that in this morning’s report. First, the trend of rising single family sales continues, and the three month average...

Angry Bear » The incipient housing choke collar: July prices update
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Angry Bear » The incipient housing choke collar: July prices update

Via Angry Bear The incipient housing choke collar: July prices update Three months ago I first wrote about the concept of a “housing choke collar” constraining economic growth, to wit: The FHFA and Case-Shiller price indexes have only decelerated to a point where they roughly match median household income growth. This makes me wonder if prices for...

Angry Bear » Personal spending shows consumers OK; durable goods shows producers still struggling
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Angry Bear » Personal spending shows consumers OK; durable goods shows producers still struggling

Via Angry Bear Personal spending shows consumers OK; durable goods shows producers still struggling This morning’s reports on personal income and spending continue to show a consumer that is doing alright. Meanwhile durable goods orders continue to show a production sector that is struggling. First, real personal income (red in the graph below) rose +0.4%...

Angry Bear » Short leading indicators show slowdown, not recession
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Angry Bear » Short leading indicators show slowdown, not recession

Via Angry Bear Amount 10 days ago, I wrote that backward revisions to adjusted NIPA corporate profits meant the long leading indicators were more negative than originally believed one year ago.  Which means that watching the short leading indicators for signs of rolling over became more important. I took a comprehensive look at the short...

A Perfect Moral Storm in Three Texts
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A Perfect Moral Storm in Three Texts

Via Angry Bear Andreas Malm, Fossil Capital: The temporal aspect is particularly striking,’ writes philosopher Stephen Gardiner, who has done perhaps more than anyone to foreground it, in A Perfect Moral Storm: The Ethical Tragedy of Climate Change: it catches us in a bind. Given that global warming is ‘seriously backloaded’ (every moment experiencing a...

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Digital Sales Tax v. Tariffs on French Wine

Via Angry Bear Even before Donald Trump departed for the G7 in Biarritz France, he threatened another trade war this time with the host country over the digital sales tax: U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday reiterated criticism of a French proposal to levy a tax aimed at big U.S. technology companies and threatened again to...

Angry Bear » Not doomed yet v.2.0: beware recession porn
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Angry Bear » Not doomed yet v.2.0: beware recession porn

Via Angry Bear Way back when I first started writing online almost 15 years ago, my very first post on Daily Kos was a little note called “Not Doomed Yet.”  It was pretty pathetic compared with the standards of my writing since the Great Recession, but the point of it was, back in 2005, that the conditions...

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Angry Bear » “Tougher On Trade Than Trump”?

Via Angry Bear This is how the NY Times has presented things day before yesterday, apparently lamenting that the Dem candidates are going to have a tough time presenting themselves as “tougher on trade than Trump.”  This somehow presumes that this is what they must do to win the election, and at least one has...

Angry Bear » Denmark Offers to Buy the US
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Angry Bear » Denmark Offers to Buy the US

Via Angry Bear run75441 | August 20, 2019 7:44 pm Andy Borowitz, The Borowitz Report, COPENHAGEN: After rebuffing Donald J. Trump’s hypothetical proposal to purchase Greenland, the government of Denmark has announced that it would be interested in buying the United States instead. “As we have stated, Greenland is not for sale,” a spokesperson for...

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Angry Bear » Milton Friedman and the Keynesians

Via Angry Bear I wrote a post with this title which is poor, solitary, nasty, and long over at Robert’s stochastic thoughts. the bottom line is I say Friedman was always a Keynesian except for his insistence that the effect of the nominal interest rate on money demand is more or less pretty much negligible....

Angry Bear » Positive July housing permits and starts
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Angry Bear » Positive July housing permits and starts

Via Angry Bear Positive July housing permits and starts The housing starts and permits report this morning for July adds to the positive data looking forward to H2 2020 (or, possibly, less bad – but that’s another discussion). First, here are overall permits (red) and starts (blue): While the very volatile starts declined, the slightly...

Angry Bear » Amazon, FedEx and the Post Office
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Angry Bear » Amazon, FedEx and the Post Office

Via Angry Bear Dan Crawford | August 18, 2019 9:33 am Both Amazon and Fed ex have embarked on plans to deliver their own “last mile” package delivery previously contracted with the US Post Office. Here is a link to Bill H. piece on this process Fake News, Flawed Analysis, and...

yellow flag for aggregate wages
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yellow flag for aggregate wages

Via Angry Bear Now that we have the July inflation reading, let’s take a look at real wages. First of all, nominal average hourly wages in June increased +0.2%, while consumer prices increased +0.3%, meaning real average hourly wages for non-managerial personnel decreased -0.1%. This results in a slight decline of real wages to 97.0%...