The “forward 4-quarter” S&P 500 estimate this week came in at $128.45 versus $128.32 from last week for the first sequential improvement in the “forward 4-quarter estimate” since the week of January 17, 2020.

The forward 4-quarter estimate covers the period from Q2 ’20 through Q1 ’21,

Here’s the last five weeks’ expected Q1 ’21 S&P 500 y/y EPS growth rates:

  • 6/12/20: +11.6%
  • 6/5/20: +11.4%
  • 5/29/20: +12.1%
  • 5/22/20: +12.0%
  • 5/15/20: +11.9%

What’s a little more interesting is that Consumer Discretionary – roughly 10% of the S&P 500 – has seen its expected growth rate jump from 57% as of May 15th to 80% as of June 12th.

Here’s the spreadsheet data on the calculation:

Look for “seq % chg in bps”.

The Forward Earnings Curve Is Still Improving

Note the second row of data: the sequential improvement occurred for every quarterly bucket this past week.

The PE ratios are now correct. Last week, an observant reader checked the math on the PEs and they were not right. One of the cells on the spreadsheet had locked the cell for an earlier S&P 500 close. (Operator error – not blaming the spreadsheet). The problem has been fixed.

Q3 and Q4 ’20 – Expected EPS and revenue growth

Isolating expected Q3 and Q4 ’20 S&P 500 EPS and revenue growth rates, it looks like the bottom or nadir was late May ’20 for Q3 and Q4 ’20, with slow improvements since.

Q4 ’20 estimated revenue growth might turn positive in the next 3-4 weeks if the trend continues.

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The Street is focused on Q2 ’20 and the earnings that start in less than a month. Let’s look beyond that and see what we can see. That’s what the above table shows.

Take all this with a grain of salt. It can all change tomorrow.

Thanks for reading.

Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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