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Rate Cut Odds Shrink Dramatically Following FOMC Decision

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Via MishTalk

CNBC reports Chances of a September Fed Rate Cut Increase

Traders now see a bigger chance of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September after it lowered interest rates for the first time since 2008 and hinted at further accommodation.

The fed funds futures market now points to a 76% of at least a quarter point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME FedWatch tool. Prior to Fed’s decision at 2 p.m. ET, traders were pricing in about a 65% chance of a rate reduction in September.

September Rate Cut Odds

Yes, the odds of a single rate cut rose from 32.6% to 77.3% but the odds of a 50 basis point cut in September fell from 54.2% to 0%. And the odds of no cut rose from 0% to 22.7%.

December CME Odds

Looking ahead to December the odds of a target rate of 1.00-1.25% fell to 0% as did odds of 1.25-1.50%.

The odds there would be no further cuts rose from 0% to 8.4%.

Everything in between shifted in the direction of tighter, not looser Fed policy.

CNBC really messed up this story.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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