By Ovi at peakoilbarrel

Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to June 2020. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites is used to provide a short-term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries.

Non-OPEC production has started to rebound from the May low of 45,379 kb/d. According to the EIA, June’s output added 564 kb/d to May’s to end up 45,943 kb/d. Using data from the STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC output was made to September. September output is expected to rise to 48,739 kb/d, with the biggest increment occurring in July, close to 1,000 kb/d. Of the 1,000 kb/d, 500 kb/d will be provided by the US.

Ranking Production from NON-OPEC Countries

Above are listed the world’s 15th largest Non-OPEC producers. They produced 87.9% of the Non-OPEC output in June. On a YoY basis, Non-OPEC production decreased by 4,484 kb/d, while on a MoM basis, production was up by 564 kb/d.

Looking at world oil production, it was down by 1,401 kb/d MoM and 11,785 kb/d YoY.

The EIA reported June production was 3,013 kb/d. According to this source, output in July and August increased to 3,069 kb/d and 3,078 kb/d respectively. (Red dots)

The increase in production is mainly due to the Lula and Búzios fields. Production from the pre-salt oil fields in August was 2,200 kb/d.

The EIA shows Canadian production was down in June by 39 kb/d to 3,655 kb/d. The Canada Energy Regulator data indicates a production increase for June and is higher because it includes NGPLs in their estimates and is close to 6% of total output. Canadian oil exports by rail to the US fell from a high of 411,991 b/d in February to 38,867 b/d in July, a drop of 90.6%.

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According to this source, China’s August production increased by 2.3% over last August. Output increased by 59 kb/d to 3,899 kb/d (Red square). However, August’s output is still slightly lower than the June’s 2020 output of 3,918 kb/d even though Chinese oil companies have increased their spending to reduce the decline rate in their oil fields.

Mexico’s production decreased in June by 12 kb/d to 1,675 kb/d, according to the EIA. Data from Pemex shows that production dropped to 1,647 kb/d in July and rebounded to 1,688 kb/d in August (red squares). Under the OPEC + Declaration of Cooperation, Mexico committed to reduce output by 100 kb/d in May.

Kazakhstan production hit a new output high in February, 1,976 kb/d. For June, production dropped by 167 kb/d to 1,601 kb/d. According to this source, Kazakhstan states that it cut its oil output beyond OPEC+ requirements in June. This may explain the total drop of 340 kb/d from April’s production of 1,941 kb/d to 1,601 kb/d.

The EIA reported that Norway’s June production was 1,560 kb/d, a decrease of 215 kb/d from May. According to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, oil output in July was 1,765 kb/d and dropped to 1,749 kb/d in August. (Red lines)

In April 2020, the government decided to implement a cut of 134 kb/d in Norwegian oil production. The production figures for oil in July and August do not appear to include the cut of 134 kb/d. It appears to have been a one month cut.

Oman production has been volatile since March. In June, production was 894 kb/d, an increase of 56 kb/d from May.

Qatar production has been stable in the 1,520 kb/d to 1,530 kb/d range since the beginning of the year.

According to the Russian Ministry of energy, Russian production increased by 61 kb/d in September to 9,932 kb/d from 9,871 kb/d. The EIA reported that June output dropped by 68 kb/d to 8,925 kb/d.

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According to this source, “Russia’s crude producers are looking to cut 2021 drilling as the pandemic threatens the recovery of prices and global demand, according to one of the country’s top-three independent oil-service providers.”

“The nation’s producers, which have reduced oil drilling by as much as one-third so far this year, may cut it by a further 20% in 2021, said Vitaly Dokunikhin, chief executive officer at Eriell Russia.”

UK’s production increased by 72 kb/d in June to 1,039 kb/d. According to OPEC, UK production is expected to stay virtually flat for 2020 and 2021.

July’s US production continued to rebound from May’s low by adding 538 kb/d to June’s output. Since May, the US has added 965 kb/d, almost 1.0 Mb/d. May’s output was revised up by 3 kb/d from the EIA’s June report.

US and Texas oil rigs increased by 6 to 211 and by 3 to 112, respectively, in the week of October 23, even though the price of WTI has remained close to $40 since early September.

According to the October DPR, the 132 rigs operating in the Permian in October are not sufficient to increase production. The DPR is estimating that production will drop by 17 kb/d from 4,382 kb/d in October to 4,365 kb/d in November.

These five countries complete the list of Non-OPEC countries with annual production between 500 kb/d and 1,000 kb/d. All five are in overall decline. Their combined June production was 3,315 kb/d, up 7 kb/d from May’s output of 3,308 kb/d. For comparison, April production was 3,516 kb/d, 201 kb/d higher than June.

Non-OPEC W/O US Oil Production

Non-OPEC w/o US output reached a new high of 39,830 kb/d in January 2020, an increase of 425 kb/d over the previous high of 39,405 in December 2018. For comparison, output from Non-OPEC countries w/o the US only increased by 541 kb/d over five years from December 2014 to December 2019. It is an indication that these countries as a whole are approaching an output plateau. May’s oil output hit a low point of 35,363 kb/d.

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Using information from the October STEO, output from the Non OPEC countries w/o the US is expected to rebound to 36,962 kb/d in September (red square). Looking further out to October 2021, output is expected to reach 39,341 kb/d. (Blue graph). Note that the October 2021 high is currently expected to be 489 kb/d lower than the January 2020 peak. The 489 kb/d difference is probably within the margin of error of whether the January 2020 high will be exceeded.

World Oil Production

World oil production in June decreased by 1,401 kb/d to 70,129 kb/d and should be the low for the year. This chart also projects world production out to September 2020. It uses the September STEO along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection. It projects that world production will recover by close to 5,000 kb/d from June’s low to 74,939 kb/d in September 2020.

This chart presents world oil production without the US. Note that the November 2016 peak is two years prior to the world’s peak shown in the previous chart. June’s production was 59,693 kb/d, a decrease of 1,818 kb/d from May and a decrease of 11,219 kb/d from April.

Using the STEO and the EIA international Energy Statistics, output for September is expected to recover to 63,714 kb/d.

Original Post

Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.