Some sound commentary from Sundance at The Last Refuge:
Let me say up front, there’s something very sketchy about the wordy explanations provided by CDC Director Dr. Fauci…
The concept of “flattening” the virus curve; the presumptive reason for social distancing; is based on a theory to extend the spread of COVID-19 to a lesser incident rate over a longer duration, thereby lessening the burden on the U.S. healthcare system. Hence, ‘flatten’ the spike in infections.
Put another way: “Flattening” means the same number of people eventually contract the virus, only they do so over a longer period of time, and the healthcare system can treat everyone because the numbers do not rise to level where the system is overloaded. In theory that seems to make sense.
However, no-one is asking: what is the current stress level on the healthcare system right now? Where are we in that capacity?… and what is normal capacity level during a high-level flu outbreak?… and Where are we when compared against that baseline?
The premise to extend the virus duration in an effort to lower the infection rate and spread the virus over a longer period of time needs to measured against: (a) where the healthcare system is at any given moment; and (b) under traditional high-flu seasons where are we during those historic events…
If the viral spread never exceeds the capacity of the healthcare system to deal with it, he can claim success. Look, our flattened curve worked.
However, when contrast against flu outbreaks, no-one knows what the COVID-19 capacity threshold is within the healthcare system. There’s no way to disprove Fauci’s theory.
Given the nature of the baseline for overall U.S. sanitation and hygiene, which is significantly higher than Italy, S-Korea and China; and given the higher standards of food safety (U.S. is the world leader); again significantly higher than Italy, S-Korea and China; and given the nature of the U.S. healthcare system (more capacity per person); is it really a fair comparison to overlay a COVID-19 outbreak, without also overlaying a traditional flu outbreak?
Any theory that cannot be scientifically tested; and is simultaneously self-fulfilling; is, by its nature, a false theory.
This is not to say that Dr. Anthony Fauci is intentionally misleading anyone; however, it is absolutely true that no-one will be able to quantify if trillions of dollars of economic wealth lost; and trillions more in economic activity lost; and trillions more in deficit spending; and that might all be done just to follow the fantastical whims of a doctor who is directing the mitigation of an ordinary flu-virus/season, and appears to be quite full of his own sense of self-importance.