Via Zerohedge

S&P futures and Asian stocks drifted higher and stocks in Europe hit the highest level since May 2018 as stronger than expected earnings helped investors shrug off more signs that global growth is losing momentum, despite yet another clear signal from Germany’s economy that Europe’s biggest economy is sliding into a recession. Sovereign bonds fluctuated on a busy day for central banks, with the ECB rate decision set to be the main focus.

Overnight Tesla shares jumped 21% in after-hours trading after the company reported an unexpected third-quarter profit; Offsetting this, on Thursday Dow futures were hit after Dow component 3M (which has a 4.2% weighting), slashed its outlook, joining Caterpillar in seeing a far less rosy end to 2019. Microsoft also posted forecast-beating profit and revenue numbers after the closing bell, although the outlook was darkened by slower-than-expected take-up of its Azure cloud services. As discussed yesterday, shares of Boeing and Caterpillar paradoxically ended about 1% higher each despite huge misses from both.

Meanwhile, European markets were sending ECB chief Mario Draghi off in style on Thursday as the former Goldman banker was set to end his 8 year tenure at the head of the European Central Bank, raising the region’s stocks to their highest in more than a year and nudging the euro towards its best month since January 2018.

Sentiment was boosted by earnings from Microsoft and Daimler, along with news of a ceasefire in northern Syria and fading fears of a no-deal Brexit, although lingering trade uncertainties and some below-par German data prevented even bigger gains.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose as much as 0.6% to its highest since May 2018 led by carmakers as every major national benchmark in the region climbed, despite the latest German PMI data which confirmed the manufacturing sector was mired in a deep recession, the service sector was sliding fast and German unemployment posted its first contraction in six years. AstraZeneca raised its 2019 sales outlook again, helped by expansion in the key China market and new drugs for cancer.

Earlier in the session, gains in Asia had included a one-year high for Tokyo’s Nikkei and saw MSCI All World index, which tracks nearly 50 countries, reach its highest since late July. Asian stocks gains were led by energy producers, after oil jumped overnight and positive earnings of companies from Tesla to Sands China buoyed investor sentiment. Most markets in the region were up, with Indonesia leading gains following a rate cut by the country’s central bank. The Topix advanced 0.3%, driven by Eisai, Toyota Motor and Honda Motor. The Shanghai Composite Index closed little changed, as a rally in large banks countered declines in 360 Security Technology and Kweichow Moutai. Tesla suppliers jumped following the electric-car maker’s surprise quarterly profit.

With a quarter of the S&P having reported, analysts are expecting earnings to have declined 2.9% year-over-year, according to consensus data. As Bloomberg notes, while not a uniformly positive picture, earnings season is helping ease investor fears over the outlook for world growth. About 80% of companies in the S&P 500 have topped expectations for profits so far, though 3M, Texas Instruments and Caterpillar both highlighted the uncertainty caused by trade tensions and global economic weakness.

“People were bracing for the worst” for this reporting season, Yana Barton, fund manager at Eaton Vance Management Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “So far we’re coming in a little bit better.”

In rates, Treasuries were unchanged at 1.76% while euro-area bonds yields were steady before Draghi’s send-off.

In FX, the Swedish crown rose 0.7% after the country’s central bank said it was still planning to raise interest rates in December. Its gains pulled the Norwegian crown higher as well, despite a relatively dovish message from the Norges Bank as it left rates unchanged.

The Turkish lira slumped after Turkey’s central bank slashed its 16.5% rates by much more than expected, cutting the rate to 14.0%, far below expectations of a 15.5% after U.S. President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Turkey following a ceasefire in northern Syria.

Sterling rebounded as high as $1.2950 before sinking back under 1.29 after rising 0.3% on Wednesday. After more than three years, Britain appears closer than ever to resolving its Brexit conundrum but still has hurdles to clear.  EU member states on Wednesday delayed a decision on whether to grant Britain a three-month Brexit extension. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said if the deadline is deferred to the end of January, he would call an election.

“The Brexit battle looks like it will drag on,” economists at ANZ wrote in a note. “The UK government will not meet its current timetable of leaving the EU on 31 October, and an extension appears likely. In the meantime, Brexit uncertainty will keep weighing on UK business investment and activity.”

Elsewhere, the euro was flat at $1.1132. The Japanese yen was 0.1% higher at 108.6 per dollar and the Australian dollar was weaker at $0.6842.

In commodity markets, U.S. crude fell 38 cents to $55.59 a barrel, and brent slipped 22 cents to $60.95 as the gloomy economic data rolled in… while helping push the S&P just shy of all time highs.

To the day ahead now, and as mentioned the main highlight will be President Draghi’s final ECB meeting and subsequent press conference. The raft of earnings releases also continues, with today featuring Amazon, Visa, Intel, Comcast, AstraZeneca, Royal Bank of Scotland, Nordea Bank and Twitter. Data releases include the preliminary October PMIs from Europe and the US, as well as a number of other US releases, with the preliminary durable goods orders and new home sales figures for September, the Kansas City Fed’s October manufacturing index, and weekly initial jobless claims. Finally, we’ll get central bank policy decisions from Sweden, Turkey and Indonesia. Also, of note is US Vice President Mike Pence’s long awaited speech on China at 11am Washington time.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,011
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 396.18
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 160.74
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 515.72
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 22,750.60
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,643.74
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 26,797.95
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.02% to 2,940.92
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 38,944.93
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,693.65
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,085.66
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to -0.387%
  • Euro down 0.03% to $1.1127
  • Brent Futures down 0.7% to $60.75/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 0.595%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.25%
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $60.78/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,489.79
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.01% to 97.50

Top Overnight News

  • To avoid a recession in the U.S. in 2020, households need to keep spending, peace needs to break out in global trade wars, and investors can’t get spooked — by the U.S. presidential election or anything else
  • The European Central Bank and Germany finally have a window of opportunity to start repairing their fractured relationship — for the first time in years
  • Sweden’s central bank is sticking to a plan to hike interest rates within months, as policy makers look past signs of a weak labor market and slower economy in their efforts to put an end to negative rates
  • Norway’s central bank reiterated its view that interest rates will remain at the current level in the “coming period,” but said that an historically weak krone poses an inflation risk
  • Germany’s manufacturing slump is taking a harsher toll on the jobs market, adding to pressure on the government to respond with fiscal stimulus
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Asian equity markets traded mixed after having failed to fully sustain the positive lead from Wall St with global markets heavily focused on earnings releases. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) were positive in which energy led the advances in Australia and with participants also engrossed in corporate updates, while sentiment in Tokyo was propped up by recent currency weakness and with double-digit percentage gains seen in Japan Display after Apple further extended an olive branch for the troubled screen manufacturer through shorter payment terms. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) were mixed after the PBoC continued with its liquidity efforts albeit at a reduced amount and with China dismissing reports of replacing Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam as political rumours, while the KOSPI (flat) underperformed its regional peers for a bulk of the session following a miss on Q3 GDP. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat as they took their cue from the lacklustre trade in T-notes, with demand restricted by the upbeat risk sentiment Japanese stocks and following mixed results at the 20yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Singapore Slowdown May be Nearing End, Central Bank Chief Says
  • Telecom Stocks Drag India Sensex Lower After Court Order on Dues
  • China Bond Investor Who Predicted Sell-Off Now Sees Recovery
  • Indonesia Cuts Key Rate for Fourth Month to Spur Economy

Major European Bourses (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%) are higher, although some choppiness was seen in wake of soft Eurozone PMI data (although France was a bright spot). “The eurozone economy started the fourth quarter mired close to stagnation, with the flash PMI pointing to a quarterly GDP growth rate of just under 0.1%” said IHS Markit. Looking ahead, markets await a slew of US earnings, including from the likes of Comcast, and the next ECB policy announcement. Sectors are in largely in the green, with the exception of Tech (-0.6%) and Telecoms (-0.8%), with notable weakness in Nokia (-19.8%) following earnings contributing to underperformance in the former. In terms of other individual movers; strong earnings from STMicroelectronics (+5.6%), Daimler (4.0%), Hermes (+1.5%), BASF (+1.8%) and AstraZeneca (+3.6%) saw their respective stock prices advance. Meanwhile, weak earnings from Puma (-2.7%), RBS (-2.2%) and Dassault Systemes (-5.3%). Elsewhere, EDF (+2.1%) was supported by the news that it can keep operating nuclear power plants with weld issues, according to the French Nuclear Authority. Porsche (+1.4%) moved higher on the news that the Co. has formed a strategic partnership with SAP (-0.3%), who opened higher but pared gains in line with the tech sector. In terms of broker moves, Rolls Royce (-4.2%) and Telia (-1.8%) moved lower on downgrades at JPM, while Ashmore Group (+1.6%) was bid on an upgrade at Investec.

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Economy Remains Close to Stagnation in October
  • Swedish Riksbank Says It Sees Grounds for December Rate Hike
  • Norway Sticks With Decision to Pause Hikes; Warns of Weak Krone
  • Germany’s Economic Downturn Worsens as Job Engine Falters

In FX, The Swedish Crown has slipped from best levels, but remains bid after the Riksbank doubled down on repo rate hike guidance and signalled that a 25 bp move is likely in December vs a more flexible timeline covering the end of 2019 and early next year. However, the path beyond suggests no further policy normalisation and in recognition of heightened uncertainty surrounding growth and inflation overseas and on the domestic front, the Bank could cut or ease via other measures if necessary. Eur/Sek is holding near the base of a circa 10.7400-10.6510 range and still net down from pre-Riksbank levels around 10.7000, while Eur/Nok is hovering just under 10.1500 within 10.1680-10.1260 parameters in wake of the Norges Bank’s policy meeting that maintained an on hold stance after September’s ¼ point rise in the depo rate given the assessment that little has changed in the ensuing period. Elsewhere, the Indonesian Rupiah is modestly softer after the BI extended its run of consecutive eases to 4 and retained a dovish bias.

  • AUD/NZD – The major fall guys on little apparent or obvious in terms of negative news and a bearish catalysts, but the Aussie and Kiwi especially seem to have fallen prey to long liquidation and a turnaround in the technical landscape after failing to extend gains through/beyond big figure and psychological levels. Aud/Usd has lost momentum through 0.6850 and Nzd/Usd on a breach of 0.6400, while the Aud/Nzd cross has corrected a bit higher above 1.0650.
  • EUR/GBP – Nowhere near the biggest G10 movers on the day, but certainly rivalling others on price action given spikes in the single currency and Sterling to 1.1163 and 1.2950 vs the Dollar respectively at one stage followed by sharp/abrupt retreats to 1.1125 and 1.2880. For Eur/Usd, French PMIs were above forecast, but ultimately no more than a flash in the pan as preliminary surveys from Germany disappointed yet again and weighed on the pan Eurozone prints. Meanwhile, Cable’s rise and fall from grace came against the backdrop of latest Brexit and UK election headlines, but probably more on positioning and jitters awaiting the EU’s verdict on another A 50 extension and PM Johnson’s reaction. Back to the Euro, ECB President Draghi’s farewell meeting and press conference loom, but expectations are low in terms of anything pertinent on new policy or guidance.
  • JPY/CHF/CAD/DXY – All relatively subdued and lacking inspiration as the Yen meanders between 108.60-75 vs the Greenback, Franc pivots 0.9900, Loonie hovers just above 1.3100 and US Dollar index rebounds off a 97.278 low to 97.532 ahead of US data.
  • EM – The Lira is still eyeing Turkish-Syria developments and international interventions after recent gains on less angst from the US in wake of the ceasefire and President Trump promising to lift sanctions if peace prevails. However, the upcoming CBRT rate call will be watched for near term direction as forecast range from no change to a 200 bp cut – see our headline feed and Research Suite for more. Usd/Try currently straddling 5.7500.

In commodities, the crude complex is slightly softer, amidst a slight pull-back from yesterday’s post-EIA Inventory data induced highs, with some choppiness seen in wake of mostly weaker than expected Eurozone PMI data. To the downside, technicians will be eyeing support at USD 54.90/bbl and USD 60.70/bbl for WTI Dec’ 19 and Brent Dec’ 19 futures respectively (11th October highs for both); to the upside yesterday’s highs for each contract are at USD 61.30/bbl and USD 56.10/bbl respectively. In terms of crude specific fundamentals, the news flow has been light. Moving to metals; Gold is slight lower, despite soft Eurozone data. Copper, meanwhile, is holding on to decent gains made yesterday; Chilean miner Codelco said that some of its shipments may be delayed as a result of the ongoing protests and strikes in the country, that have seen operations affected in at least two mines and a smelter. Despite being pressured in recent weeks, as global economic data has continued to show deterioration (particularly in China, the largest buyer of the red metal), the unrest in Chile continues to provide support to prices, notes ING.

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US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.7%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.1%, prior -0.4%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.2%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 214,000
  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, est. 1.68m, prior 1.68m
  • 8:30am: Durables Ex Transportation, est. -0.2%, prior 0.5%
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 63.5
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 51, prior 50.9
  • 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 51
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 50.9, prior 51.1
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 701,500, prior 713,000
  • 10am: New Home Sales MoM, est. -1.61%, prior 7.1%
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -2.5, prior -2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Here in the U.K., Sky News have created a pop-up news channel that doesn’t include anything about Brexit. I’ve no idea if there is so much fatigue that it’s challenging the ratings of either the England football World Cup win of 1966 or Charles and Diana’s Royal Wedding in 1981 but it’s fair to say yesterday was a nice breather from the intensity of the ongoing saga. My wife and I actually had to find something else to talk about over dinner. I’m a bit worried if it does ever end one way or the other it will expose a lack of things in common. For over half our marriage we’ve had this to discuss. Maybe we need a long extension after all. Anyway there is a small amount of new news but not much and rather than issue a pop-up EMR without Brexit news we’ll relegate in to the 12th paragraph.

Of more importance this morning will be the release of the preliminary PMIs for October, which should give us an early insight into how the global economy has fared moving into Q4 and whether any of the very recent easing of trade and Brexit tensions have managed to filter into business sentiment yet. We also have Draghi’s last ECB meeting and press conference and also Mike Pence’s long awaited speech on the future US/China relationship. When it was cancelled earlier this year it was expected to be very hawkish.

Onto the PMIs first. Last month, the deterioration in sentiment fell to new lows, with Germany’s manufacturing PMI down to 41.7, its lowest reading since June 2009, and the Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI to 45.7, the lowest since October 2012. The divergence between manufacturing and services we’ve seen in recent months continued, but there started to be signs that it is closing, but in a bad way. The Eurozone’s services index fell -1.9pts to 51.6 last month, which is still in expansionary zone but the trend has been poor. The situation is even worse in Germany, where the services PMI fell -3.4pts, the sharpest drop since 2013. For today, the consensus is anticipating a modest uptick, with both the manufacturing and services PMIs for the Eurozone expected to rise three-tenths to 46.0 and 51.9 respectively. All eyes on this. For the US, expectations are for the manufacturing and services PMIs to come in at 50.9 and 51.0, close to flat from September. The US PMIs have held up better than the ISM lately, but in truth the market has reacted much more to the latter.

The other market highlight today comes from the ECB, in what will be President Mario Draghi’s last Governing Council meeting before Christine Lagarde takes over on 1 November. His final choice of tie colour will be of great interest to all. Maybe it will be a novelty bow-tie. Over his 8 years in charge, the Euro Area has emerged from its sovereign debt crisis and seen unemployment fall to 7.4%, its lowest since May 2008. However, inflation has proved stubbornly difficult to return to target (averaging 1.19% over the period), standing at just +0.8% in September, while five-year forward five-year inflation swaps stand at just 1.202%, so not exactly a vote of confidence from the markets that they expect the ECB to get inflation back up again anytime soon.

Although Draghi’s term has another week to go we thought we’d mark his last press conference with a look at the performance of our usual sweep of key global assets under his 8 year tenure. For a start the euro has weakened by -18.8% against the dollar since November 1st 2011 which likely reflects the relative shifts in monetary policy and growth over the period. The Stoxx 600 (c.121% local, 79% dollar adjusted) has lagged the top global performers namely the NASDAQ (+244%), Nikkei (198%) and S&P 500 (191%). Interestingly the best performing Euro-area sovereign is actually the BTP market (+77%) helped by the “whatever it takes” mantra and endless QE. Even though Bunds have seen yields collapse deep into negative territory, 10 years were already as low as 1.77% at the start of his reign so the 26% return (2% in dollar terms) is not actually that spectacular and is only slightly higher than Treasuries (19%). I wonder what bunds will return under Lagarde’s leadership. My not too controversial guess is that it will be a negative number.

In terms of what to look out for today, no policy change is expected after the easing package released in September, and DB’s Mark Wall wrote in his Friday preview (link here ) that he expects Draghi “to urge policy patience, Council unity and the unburdening of monetary policy with fiscal policy.” Instead, he sees a final 10bp cut to the deposit facility rate at Lagarde’s first meeting in December.

Before today’s meeting and next Friday’s resumption of their corporate purchases, Michal Jezek published a report that summarises our key views and addresses questions about CSPP 2.0: Where is the current ECB portfolio underweight relative to the CSPP benchmark based on ratings, sectors and countries? That is where their new buying is likely to be concentrated now. How many long-dated corporate bonds were bought in the past? Are purchases likely all the way up to 30 years? What are our estimates of upcoming net and gross CSPP purchases? What type of fund flows have we observed before, during and after CSPP 1.0? Where is relative value between CSPP-eligible and ineligible bonds now? You can download the report here .

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Back to yesterday, and equity markets made modest advances as they reacted to a number of earnings releases, with the S&P 500 (+0.28%) and the NASDAQ (+0.19%) both rising. Boeing gained again, +1.07% after the company said they would increase production of the 737 Max from 42 to 57 per month by late 2020. Meanwhile, global bellwether Caterpillar (+1.24%) reduced their profit outlook, but their shares nevertheless rallied thanks to a more aggressive plan to return capital to shareholders. Still, Caterpillar lowered their full-year profit per share outlook range to $10.90-$11.40, having previously been $12.06 to $13.06. Revenues fell by -6% to $12.8bn. In other earnings news, semiconductor firms fell -1.93% after Texas Instruments (-7.48%) had a poor report, guiding for a 14% fall in revenue relative to last year and for fourth quarter profits to come in around 20% below analyst expectations. Elsewhere, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg testified to Congress and faced tough questions regarding the company’s proposed cryptocurrency Libra, as well as about factually untrue political ads, encryption and law enforcement issues, child exploitation, and preparation for the 2020 election. Zuckerberg was deemed to have avoided any major slip ups and Facebook shares rallied +2.11% on the session. After the close, Microsoft’s (+0.51% after hours) results topped consensus estimates, though the Azure cloud-computing business line decelerated. Also, Ford (-2.61% after hours) cut its guidance as results in both China and the US disappointed, and Tesla (+20.15% after hours) gained sharply to reach a new six-month high after posting a surprise profit thanks to lower costs, compared to expectations for a quarterly loss.

Overnight in Asia markets are trading mixed with the Nikkei (+0.63%) and Hang Seng (+0.47%) up while the Shanghai Comp (-0.22%) and Kospi (-0.09%) are down as they erased gains after opening higher. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flat while WTI oil prices are down c. -0.80% this morning. In terms of overnight data releases, Japan’s preliminary October composite PMI came in at 49.8 (vs. 51.5 in last month) with services PMI falling by -2.5pts from last month to 50.3 while manufacturing print declined by -0.4bps to 48.5, the lowest level since June 2016. IHS Markit which compiles the survey, flagged that a recent typhoon that disrupted supply chains, and a sales tax that may have front-loaded activity, were temporary factors that could be overstating the weakness seen in the survey. South Korea’s Q3 GDP growth rate came in at +0.4% qoq (vs. +0.5% qoq expected).

In Europe yesterday the STOXX 600 up +0.11%, although technology stocks dragged on the index. In terms of the other indices, the DAX was up +0.34%, while both the CAC 40 (-0.08%) and the FTSE MIB (-0.60%) fell back. Sovereign debt continued to rally however, with Bunds (-2.4bps), OATs (-2.6bps) and gilts (-2.xbps) all gaining, while Greek ten-year yields fell -1.2bps to a fresh record low of 1.252%. Ten-year treasuries ended close to flat on the session and the curve steepened 2.0bps as the front end strengthened a touch. It was a good day for the major commodities too, with WTI and Brent up +2.73% and +2.46% respectively, as US inventory data showed a significantly larger drawdown in stockpiles than expected. The dollar traded flat, though the Turkish lira gained +1.30% after the President Trump announced that he will cancel sanctions on Turkey under a new ceasefire plan for the Syrian border.

Brexit may not be the lead story in the EMR for the first time in over a week, but to update you on where we are, the EU are currently considering the UK’s request for an extension until the end of January, although Bloomberg cited EU officials who said a decision would probably not come until Friday. It could be early next week if it requires a special council meeting due to disagreements. President Macron is the wildcard here but there is scepticism that even he would like to be responsible for a possible no-deal outcome. The length of any extension could be debated however. The advantage of a 3-month extension would be that this is what Parliament has already requested in the Benn Act. If the extension is of a different length, then the House of Commons will have to pass a motion approving the extension that the European Council decides.

The Times also reported that Prime Minister Johnson and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn met to discuss a new programme motion, which was what was defeated on Tuesday night after MPs decided they wanted more time to examine the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. It appears the talks were fairly fruitless. Briefings suggest that Downing Street will push for an election in the event that the EU offer a 3-month extension. Labour will find it harder to decline this time. Overnight, The Times has reported that PM Boris Johnson could make a third attempt to trigger a general election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act either tonight or on Monday that would force MPs to decide before the October 31 deadline whether to allow an election. Elsewhere, The Sun Politics team tweeted overnight that PM Johnson is facing a growing Tory revolt over his threat to hold a General Election before delivering Brexit. Sterling is trading flattish this morning at 1.2917.

European data yesterday didn’t raise confidence ahead of today’s PMIs, as the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence number for October fell to -7.6 (vs. -6.8 expected), its lowest level so far this year and below every analysts’ estimate on Bloomberg. We also got the INSEE’s business climate indicator for France, which fell to 105 (vs. 106 expected), while the manufacturing reading also declining 3 points to 99 (vs. 102 expected), putting it below the long-term average of 100 for the first time since March 2015.

In other news, China leapfrogged France in the World Bank’s annual rankings for ease of doing business as the country jumped to 31 in rankings from 46 last year while France remained unchanged at 32. US also improved in rankings by 2 places to 6 while the top 5 comprised of New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, Denmark and South Korea.

To the day ahead now, and as mentioned the main highlight will be President Draghi’s final ECB meeting and subsequent press conference. The raft of earnings releases also continues, with today featuring Amazon, Visa, Intel, Comcast, AstraZeneca, Royal Bank of Scotland, Nordea Bank and Twitter. Data releases include the preliminary October PMIs from Europe and the US, as well as a number of other US releases, with the preliminary durable goods orders and new home sales figures for September, the Kansas City Fed’s October manufacturing index, and weekly initial jobless claims. Finally, we’ll get central bank policy decisions from Sweden, Turkey and Indonesia. Also, of note is US Vice President Mike Pence’s long awaited speech on China at 11am Washington time.