Numbers & Statistics

Five Takeaways from Germany’s Economic Outlook

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Via IMF (Den Internationale Valutafond)

The Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, capital of Germany. The country’s economy slowed in 2018 but is expected to return to trend in 2019. (photo: Ralph Hirshberger/Newscom)

Germany’s economic performance has been strong for the past decade, with
the unemployment rate currently at a record low, and healthy public and
private balance sheets. But the export-dependent economy has been hit hard
by the slowdown in global demand, while structural challenges are looming
in the medium term. At the same time, external imbalances remain large,
partly reflecting the uneven distribution of the gains from growth.

Here are five key takeaways from the latest staff report on Germany,
summarizing the economic context and outlook, as well as the IMF’s main r main policy
recommendations.

  • Growth:
    After several years of real GDP growth averaging over 2 percent
    annually, Germany’s economy slowed sharply in the second half of
    2018. This reflected a mixture of weak external demand and special
    circumstances affecting the auto and chemical industries. Solid
    investment in construction and equipment is projected to gradually
    bring output back to trend by the end of this year, resulting in
    0.7 percent growth in 2019 and 1.7 percent in 2020.

    Looking ahead, structural challenges are weighing on Germany’s
    potential output. Soon, the labor force is expected to shrink as
    the population ages, while productivity growth remains low.
    Adaptation to technological change and digitalization is slow,
    while the energy transition poses important uncertainties for
    business investment.

  • Current Account:
    Rising saving by firms, together with fiscal consolidation after
    2011, fueled the rise in Germany’s current account surplus. For
    much of the past two decades, as unemployment fell, and exports
    surged, wage growth lagged behind and household purchasing power
    stagnated, particularly among the lower paid.

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    Reflecting this, a rising share of national income took the form of
    profits retained by firms, whose ownership is highly concentrated
    among the wealthiest households. As these households tend to save a
    larger share of their income, private saving increased and the
    current account surplus surged.

         

  • Fiscal policy: With many consecutive years of large fiscal surpluses, and the
    public debt ratio on a declining path, Germany’s fiscal space is
    substantial. This fiscal space should be used fully to support
    potential growth through public investment in physical and human
    capital, and to provide further tax relief for low-income households which,
    along with stronger wage growth, would restore their purchasing
    power. These policies would boost potential growth, and help reduce
    external imbalances.

  • Structural reforms: With the working-age population set to decline and widespread
    labor shortages, reforms to raise productivity and domestic
    investment are key to sustaining growth going forward. The focus
    should be on upgrading coverage of nationwide high-speed internet,
    rolling out the e-Government platform, supporting venture capital,
    and reducing uncertainties around the strategy for an ambitious
    energy transition program.

    Chart 2

  • Financial sector: Amid the “low-for-long” interest rate environment, the German
    banking system needs to accelerate measures to shore up
    profitability, which has been persistently under pressure from high
    costs and slow progress with restructuring. Faster restructuring
    should be accompanied by an expanded macroprudential toolkit and
    enhanced data availability to address rising macro-financial risks.



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