Expectations of a Federal Reserve Rate Cut This Month Are Very High
|Past Recessions (red shaded areas)|
My indicators show no significant threat of a recession in the near future, despite what Austrian-lites say.
Lites are thinking more like Federal Reserve members than anything else. They are all looking at the wrong data.
At present, the traders of Fed funds futures are putting the possibility of a cut in the Fed funds rate at 91.2% at the next scheduled meeting of the Fed monetary policy committee, the Federal Open Market Committee. The meeting is scheduled for September 17-18.
As I outline in the EPJ Daily Alert, there is really no need at this time for the Fed to cut rates to keep its manipulated boom going. More than anything, a cut will spped up a major eventual spike in price inflation to the 3% to 5% range based on government price inflation measures.