Welcome to the May 2020 edition of Electric Vehicle [EV] company news.
The big news this month was the reopening of many car manufacturing plants globally after the COVID-19 closures. The other big news was France’s Euro 8.8b auto rescue plan. Also, some under the radar news is the rapid progress of the Tesla China Gigafactory 3 doubling expansion to produce Model Y in China from 2021.
Global electric car sales as of end April 2020
Global electric car sales finished April 2020 with 110,000 for the month, down 30% on April 2019, with market share 2.8% for April 2020, and 2.7% YTD. YTD sales are down 12%. Due to COVID-19, conventional car sales are down 45% in April and 29% this year, showing EV sales are doing relatively better in a very tough environment. Being only down 12% in 2020 due to COVID-19, I think it is possible by the end of 2020, EV sales can end up with a positive growth number, especially considering Q1 is usually the slowest quarter and global economies are now reopening.
Of note, 67% of all global electric car sales in April 2020 were 100% battery electric vehicles [BEVs], the balance being hybrids.
On March 31, 2020, China extended the subsidies for 2 years. Then in April 2020, subsidies were announced to decline by 10% pa for BEVs, and 15% pa for PHEVs through to 2022. China’s Zero Emission Vehicle credit system (NEV credit scheme) in 2020 required 12 points of credits from new energy vehicles [NEVs]. It is currently under consideration to be increased (14 in 2021, 16 in 2022 and 18 in 2023). A December 2019 report from Reuters stated: “China wants new energy vehicle sales in 2025 to be 25% of all car sales.“
Europe electric car sales were 31,500 in April 2020, 16% lower than in April 2019. Europe electric car market share was 11% in April, and 7.8% YTD. Norway still leads the world with an incredible 70% market share in April 2020.
US electric car sales were not reported by EV Sales in April 2020 as it appears many ICE brands don’t want to publish their EV sales numbers.
Note: The above sales include light commercial vehicles.
Global electric car sales by manufacturer for April 2020
Source: EV-Sales Blogspot
EV sales forecast to really take off from 2022 as affordability kicks in
The chart below aligns with my research that electric car sales will really take off after 2022, when my model forecasts electric and ICE car price parity.
BloombergNEF 2020 forecast for annual electric vehicle sales have just been released during May. They are:
- 10% share by 2025 (~9m pa)
- 28% share by 2030 (~24m pa)
- 58% share by 2040 (~54m pa)
BNEF updated 2020 EV forecasts
The BNEF 2020 forecast with the raw numbers and country share
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance [BNEF] 2020 EV report
EV market news
On May 3, CNBC reported:
Electric cars take the spotlight in China’s post-coronavirus stimulus plans. Battery charging infrastructure – frequently cited as a reason for not buying an electric car – got an injection of 2.7 billion yuan. That would allow for a ten-fold increase in scale versus last year, according to state media.
On May 9, Forbes wrote:
Why electric vehicles are going to take over the world. Interesting times in the electric vehicle market, as more and more carmakers try to position themselves in what looks like a second phase of growth. In the luxury market segment, the announced launch of Tesla’s Cybertruck has galvanized a market that, in the United States, buys two million vehicles each year. In the economy segment, Volkswagen has announced plans to launch a family of electric vehicles priced at below $22,000, targeting city dwellers… With growing interest from more market segments and more brands pivoting to direct sales or managing their own fleets, the transition to electric vehicles is speeding up, making them an increasingly reasonable alternative, which is a better outcome for everyone.
On May 12, Argus media reported:
EVs more than double Europe auto market share in 1Q. New European registrations of electric vehicles [EVs] rose sharply in the first quarter of 2020, bucking the downward trend in the continent’s wider automotive sector and providing a robust demand signal for battery metals that is likely to be welcomed by suppliers facing multiple headwinds. EVs accounted for 6.8pc of European vehicle registrations in January-March, up from a 2.5pc share a year earlier and at odds with the overall narrative of sharp economic decline amid the Covid-19 crisis.
On May 14, Reuters reported:
Exclusive: Tesla’s secret batteries aim to rework the math for electric cars and the grid. Electric car maker Tesla Inc plans to introduce a new low-cost, long-life battery in its Model 3 sedan in China later this year or early next that it expects will bring the cost of electric vehicles in line with gasoline models, and allow EV batteries to have second and third lives in the electric power grid…
On May 14, S&P Global reported:
As battery costs plummet, lithium-ion innovation hits limits, experts say. Lithium-ion battery packs cost US$1,183 per kilowatt hour in 2010; nine years later, the price had dropped nearly tenfold to US$156/kWh in 2019… Manufacturers are closing in on a point where electric vehicles will reach cost parity with their fossil fuel-powered cousins at around US$100/kWh, or perhaps a little less, experts said… BloombergNEF forecast battery costs falling under US$100/kWh in 2024 and hitting around US$60/kWh by 2030… Bernstein analysts have projected 2024 as the year that mainstream electric vehicles reach cost parity with gas and diesel vehicles, while electric vehicle leaders in the sector may reach the same point by 2022 or 2023… lithium-ion battery prices could still decline by about 20% and 30% but that they will not likely get much cheaper. “We’re quickly approaching the limits of raw material costs”.
Lithium ion battery average costs have declined to US$156/kWh in 2019
On May 20, S&P Global reported:
The European Commission plans draft EU green battery rules by October ahead of EV surge. The European Commission plans to propose EU sustainable battery rules by October in a bid to challenge China’s dominance of the global battery market, which is projected to grow to Eur250 billion per year ($274 billion) by 2025. The EC hopes the rules will become binding by 2022, in time for an expected surge in electric vehicle output in 2023. The rules aim to give the EU a competitive edge in battery sustainability, performance and safety, and to develop a circular economy for all batteries produced or sold in Europe. A key issue is access to raw materials… The EU is expected to need up to 18 times more lithium and five times more cobalt by 2030 to meet demand from renewable energy, e-mobility, defense and space sectors. Sefcovic said that EVs’ share of the EU market grew to 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020, up from 2.5% in Q1 2019, reflecting falls in demand for diesel and petrol vehicles.
On May 21, Argus Media reported:
Shanghai to subsidise NEV sales. China’s Shanghai government will offer a subsidy of 5,000 yuan/unit ($704/unit) to new energy vehicle (NEVs) buyers before 31 December this year, following the central government’s stimulus plans to boost sales. Shanghai is also planning to stimulate NEV use for public transport. The city is on target to introduce 2,500 new electric buses by the end of this year to fully electrify public buses in downtown and the suburbs. It is also set to allocate 5,000 all-electric taxi licences by the end of this year. The municipal government will offer free licence plates to NEV buyers. Other provincial governments in China have also taken various measures to boost NEV sales. Hainan will offer a subsidy of Yn10,000/unit to NEV buyers until 31 December, following steps introduced by the Guangzhou municipal government and Sichuan province.
On May 25, Business Wire reported: “Aviation: Total and Gaussin Developing World’s 1st Full Electric Aircraft Refueller Transporter.”
On May 26, Electrek reported:
France makes EVs central to an $8.8 billion plan to rescue its auto industry. To rescue the country’s ailing auto industry, Macron said that he wants France to become the leading producer of clean cars in Europe. Macron announced that France would increase consumer incentives to buy an electric car to €7,000 from €6,000. The aid is also expected to include incentives for people to scrap their old vehicles and buy a lower-emission model. Macron also tweeted that support for Peugeot-Citroen and Renault, as well as parts suppliers, will increase “massively.” The €8 billion does not include a €5 billion government loan guarantee under discussion for struggling Renault, or the millions the government has already spent on temporary unemployment payments to auto workers.
On May 26, Electrek reported:
Here’s how Europe is now dwarfing China in EV investments. Europe attracted €60 billion in investments for electric vehicles in 2019 — compared to China’s €17.1 billion the same year. Why the growth in Europe? A big part of it has to do with Volkswagen‘s investment in electric vehicles.
On May 28, Reuters reported:
Vietnam’s VinFast to launch first electric car in 2021. VinFast a unit of Vingroup, Vietnam’s largest conglomerate. Company plans to target U.S. market with electric model. “We expect to officially debut the model at the Los Angeles Auto Show in November 2020; launch a test programme in January 2021 and mass produce the cars by July 2021.”
EV company news
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Tesla is currently ranked the number 1 globally with 18% global market share. Tesla is number 1 in Europe with ~12% (not updated this month) market share, and number 2 in China with 12% market share. Tesla is still assumed to be the number 1 electric car seller in the US.
On April 30, Electrek reported:
Elon Musk: one of the most exciting days in Tesla history is coming – hints at ‘Terafactory’. A ‘Terafactory’ could be producing over a terawatt-hour of battery capacity, which is 1,000 GWh or about 20 times the current capacity of Panasonic’s production at Gigafactory Nevada and several times the world’s production for EV batteries. The goal is for Tesla to produce its own battery cells using technologies developed by Tesla’s internal teams, including work from its research lab in Canada led by Jeff Dahn, and new technologies recently acquired through the acquisition of Maxwell, on a massive scale and at a cost below $100 per kWh.
On May 1, Seeking Alpha reported:
Tesla drops Model 3 prices in China for subsidy inclusion. Tesla drops the starting price for Model 3s manufactured in China by 10% to qualify for subsidies in the nation. The new price for the Standard Range Plus Model 3 sedan is now 271,550 yuan ($38,463.17) after new customers receive 20,250 yuan per car as an EV subsidy.
On May 5, Cleantechnica reported: “Tesla to get battery production equipment from Hanwha.”
On May 10, Green Car Reports reported: “Musk announces Tesla HQ is leaving California, threatens moving assembly out too.”
On May 18, Electrek reported: “Tesla rises on officially being allowed to restart production” (in California).
On May 19, Electrek reported:
Tesla quietly adds bidirectional charging capability for game-changing new features. Electrek has learned that Tesla has quietly made Model 3, and likely Model Y, ready for bidirectional charging, which should enable some game-changing features in the near future.
On May 24, Green Car Reports reported:
Musk: Tesla Cybertruck won’t be downsized, but smaller follow-up truck a possibility.” A recent video with Jay Leno suggests the Cybertruck may be 5% smaller.
Source: Courtesy CNBC
On May 25, Teslarati reported:
Tesla China’s Model Y plant accelerates buildout amid Giga Shanghai’s expansion. Recent drone flyovers from Tesla enthusiast Jason Yang have shown that the Model Y factory is now undergoing roof paving. This means that by the start of 2021, Tesla may be preparing to start delivering the Model Y to local customers.
Tesla China Gigafactory 3 expansion to produce 150,000 Model Y’s pa starting sometime in 2021
On May 27, Green Car Reports reported:
Tesla lowers prices on all but Model Y, appears to drop free Supercharging. Prices on the Tesla Model 3 lineup have been lowered by $2,000 across the board, while the price tag of the Model X and Model S have been lowered by $5,000… The feature list of the Model S and Model X no longer include one big perk those cars had up until yesterday included: unlimited use of the Supercharger network.
Investors can read my June 2019 Blog post: “Tesla – A Look At The Positives And The Negatives”, where I rated the stock a buy. It was trading at USD 196.80. You can also read a good recent Tesla article by Nick Cox on SA: “Asia Set To Further Accentuate The Demand For Tesla Cars.“
BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Mini
On May 6, Electrek reported:
BMW cancels its Tesla Roadster-competitor in the electric supercar segment.
On May 7, Green Car Reports reported:
BMW re-ups electric-vehicle commitment — and hydrogen fuel-cell investment. BMW remains committed to both electric cars and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. The German automaker will continue a planned rollout of battery-electric models, as well as investing in fuel-cell research for passenger cars. By 2025, BMW plans to invest over 30 billion euros ($32 billion) in research and development, according to a press release discussing the automaker’s response to the coronavirus pandemic and Q1 2020 financial results. Some of that money will go to fuel-cell vehicles.
BMW Concept i4
On May 15, Green Car Reports reported: “First drive review: The 2020 Mini Cooper SE electric car realigns how I see EVs.”
2020 Mini Cooper SE Electric Car
On May 21, Electrek reported:
BMW confirms summer 2020 production of iX3 EV crossover on new flexible platform. The pandemic won’t stop BMW from starting production of the all-electric iX3 in China this summer. The iX3 is not coming to the US.
BMW iX3 EV
On May 1, Green Car Reports reported:
2020 Audi E-Tron Sportback goes 7% more miles, costs slightly more than SUV… The 2019 Audi E-Tron SUV started at $75,795 — so compared to that, the Sportback is a relatively minor amount ($2,600) higher.
2020 Audi E-Tron Sportback
On May 5, Green Car Reports reported:
Report: VW might create a new brand for affordable EVs. Volkswagen plans to launch 27 electric cars based on its MEB platform by 2022. That will include a family of affordable models, although VW hasn’t decided which brand they will be sold under, according to a new report.
On May 7, CleanTechnica reported:
Electric Audi Q4 coming to America. There’s good news for Audi fans. According to Car & Driver, the Q4, an all electric dual motor SUV, is coming to America sometime in 2021. The Q4 will be the first Audi built on the Volkswagen MEB modular EV chassis and will start at around $45,000.
Q4 is the least expensive electric Audi
On May 7, Green Car Reports reported: “VW design chief: ID electric vehicles among first created all-digitally.”
VW ID Family
On May 21, CleanTechnica reported: “Volkswagen R Division to go all in on electric cars.”
On May 27, South China Morning Post reported:
Volkswagen is in final talks to pay US$491 million for an electric carmaker in Anhui, sealing its biggest acquisition in China.
Note: Another report mentions the deal is to buy 50% of Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Holding, the parent of its EV partner JAC Motors.
On May 7, CleanTechnica reported:
BYD Tang 600 coming to Norway. Chinese manufacturers are looking beyond the domestic market for future sales. The Tang 600 has an 82 kWh battery and two 150 kW electric motors. Its range as measured by the NEDC test cycle is given as 373 miles. EPA ratings are typically about one third less.
BYD Tang 600 EV For Norway
On May 11, BYD reported:
Nobina selects BYD eBus fleet for far-north operation. BYD, Europe’s leading electric bus manufacturer, has received an order for a further 13 eBuses from Nobina – the principal bus operator in Sweden and the Nordic region. The new 12-metre models are destined for the town of Piteå in the north-east of Sweden where the new BYD fleet will go into service at their most northerly location ever in Europe – close to the arctic circle at latitude 65.31º north.
On May 13, BYD reported:
Madrid receives pure-electric BYD 12-metre eBus fleet. BYD, Europe’s leading electric bus manufacturer, has this week delivered a fleet of 15 BYD 12-metre pure electric buses to the Municipal Transport Company of Madrid – EMT Madrid.
BYD 12-Metre eBuses for EMT Madrid Delivery
On May 14, CleanTechnica reported: “BYD Han coming to Europe soon, first to use blade battery & 5G connectivity.”
On May 22, BYD reported:
President of Uruguay launches BYD’s Electric Bus fleet for CUTCSA, Uruguay’s largest operator. On May 19, BYD and Abriley S.A., the local distributor for Uruguay and a pioneer in Latin American transport electrification, delivered a fleet of 20 units of BYD 12-meter pure electric buses to CUTCSA, the country’s largest urban public transport operator, in the Uruguayan capital of Montevideo.
20 BYD 12-meter electric buses delivered to CUTCSA in Uruguay
Beijing Automotive Group Co. (BAIC) [HK:1958) (OTC:BCCMY), SAIC Motor Corporation Limited [SAIC] [CH:600104] (SAIC includes Roewe, MG, Baojun, Maxus)
BAIC is currently ranked the global number 17 with 2% market share.
On May 5, Just Auto reported:
SAIC Motor stabilises in April, V-shaped recovery in China expected. Shanghai based SAIC Motor reported a slight year-on-year rise in global sales in April 2020, of 0.5% to 433,000 units, after a steep decline in the first quarter of the year due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus in the country.
Renault is ranked global number 6 globally with 4% market share, and is currently number 4 in Europe with ~9% (not updated) market share. Nissan is currently ranked number 10 for global electric car sales with 3% market share.
On May 8, Green Car Reports reported: “Leaf-based Nissan e-NV200 XL electric van is bigger, still not US-bound.”
On May 26, Automotive News reported:
Renault, Nissan said to seek more equitable sharing instead of merger. Renault and Nissan have shelved plans to push toward the full merger…
On May 29, Olt News reported:
Nissan 2023 Strategy: 12 new models in 18 months, production cut by 20%. Expanding presence in EVs and electric-motor-driven cars, including e-POWER, with more than 1 million electrified sales units expected a year by end of FY23. In Japan, launching two more electric vehicles and four more e-POWER vehicles, increasing electrification ratio to 60% of sales.
Note: See story above in the EV market news section – “France makes EVs central to an $8.8 billion plan to rescue its auto industry.” Includes talks on a Euro 5b loan to Renault.
Investors can read my recent Trend Investing article: “The Era Of The Truly Affordable Electric Car Is Finally Arriving Soon Helped By Renault.”
On May 22, Green Car Reports reported: “Hyundai Kona Electric: The new favored police patrol car for Europe?”
Hyundai Kona Electric police cars in Switzerland
Volvo is currently ranked number 9 in the global electric car manufacturer’s sales ranking with 4% global market share.
On May 7, Green Car Reports reported: “Electric Volvo XC90 will likely offer optional fully autonomous highway driving.”
On May 14, Electrek reported:
Volvo CEO: Pandemic will rapidly accelerate shift to electric cars. Volvo plans to launch an all-electric car every year for the next five years. By 2025, Volvo wants all-electric vehicles to represent 50% of its global sales. In January, Volvo opened online orders for its first mass-produced EV — the Volvo XC40 Recharge. A $1,000 deposit is required for a reservation. The 402-horsepower all-electric crossover will provide more than 200 miles on a single charge. The first deliveries in the US are expected later this year.
On May 19, Green Car Reports reported: “Polestar will open its first United States retail locations later this year in New York City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco…”
On May 22, Automotive News China reported:
Geely to explore deeper ties with Daimler. Geely built a 9.69 percent stake in Daimler in 2018, making it the German automaker’s biggest single shareholder. The two companies formed a China-based venture to build electric Smart cars and a separate premium ride-hailing venture. They also invested in Volocopter, a flying taxi company.
On May 5, CNBC reported: “Fiat Chrysler to restart US production in two weeks after coronavirus shutdowns lead to $1.8 billion quarterly loss.”
On May 26, Automotive News reported: “Fiat Chrysler wins preliminary bank approval for $6.9B loan, report says.”
Daimler-Mercedes (OTCPK:DDAIF, OTCPK:DDAIY) (Smart – 50% JV between Daimler & Geely)
On May 6, Green Car Reports reported: “Long before Tesla existed, Mercedes-Benz tested solar-charged all-electric sedans.”
On May 14, Mercedes reported:
Smart SUV: Produced in China by Geely, designed by Mercedes. The smart brand is facing a new beginning. The 50-50% joint venture between Daimler and Geely radically transforms the smart brand, which becomes an electric brand and production will take place exclusively in China.
On May 27, Mercedes reported: “New Mercedes E-Class Coupe and Cabriolet are here.”
Mercedes E-Class Coupe and Cabriolet
On May 27, Automotive News reported:
Daimler to invest in EV battery maker Farasis’ IPO, report says. Daimler plans to invest in Farasis Energy’s planned $480 million initial public offering, aiming to ensure a stable supply of batteries from the Chinese company as it ramps up electric vehicle production, three people familiar with the matter said. The plan has yet to be finalized and is subject to change, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity as the discussions are private.
Toyota (NYSE:TM) Lexus
On May 8, Electrek reported:
First Lexus EV comes with 1 million-km warranty for its air-cooled battery. The Lexus UX 300e, the luxury brand’s first EV, is on sale in China now and hits Europe later this year. Lexus in Europe announced today that the crossover’s air-cooled 54.3-kilowatt-hour battery will come with a 10-year, 1 million-kilometer (621,000-mile) warranty. The Lexus UX300e joins the Nissan Leaf as one of the few EVs with air-cooled batteries, which are considered not as robust.
Lexus UX 300e
General Motors/Chevrolet (NYSE:GM)
On May 13, Green Car Reports reported:
GM has fast-tracked its electric-vehicle program in pandemic slowdown. “We haven’t changed our plans at all, and we’re continuing to be full speed ahead on executing what you saw here on EV Day,” said Ken Morris, GM’s VP for autonomous and electric vehicle programs… “I can affirm for you that we have not cut any of our spending or activities around the Ultium propulsion system vehicles like the Cadillac Lyriq and Hummer EV.”
Teaser for Cadillac Lyriq electric cossover SUV based on GM BEV3 modular platform
On May 20, Reuters reported: “GM says it is ‘almost there’ on million-mile electric vehicle battery.”
On May 12, Green Car Reports reported: “2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E electric SUV cues a shift to over-the-air updates.”
On May 15, Green Car Reports reported:
2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E charging rates look competitive vs. E-Tron and I-Pace. The company now says that the 2021 Mustang Mach-E will recover 61 miles of range in just 10 minutes.
2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E First Edition
On May 15, CarsGuide reported: “New Mazda MX-30 2021 charging towards Australian launch to take on Hyundai Kona Electric.”
Mazda MX-30 2021 – 35.5kWh delivers ~200kms of range
Rivian Automotive (private)
On April 28, Electrek reported:
Lincoln cancels use of Rivian’s technology for its first electric vehicle. Ford confirmed today that it canceled plans to use Rivian’s electric skateboard platform for a Lincoln-badged electric vehicle. Ford still plans to produce a Lincoln EV but is using its own technology. Rivian earlier this month announced that it slightly pushed back the release of its R1T electric pickup from late 2020 to early 2021.
NIO Inc. (formerly NextEV) (NIO)
On May 6, GlobeNewswire reported:
NIO Inc. provides April 2020 delivery update. Cumulative deliveries of ES8 and ES6 reached 38,906. NIO delivered 3,155 vehicles in April 2020, representing a strong consecutive growth of 105.8% month over month and a 180.7% growth year over year.
On May 28, Automotive News China reported:
Nio eyes listing for new China entity as revenue takes hit. Electric vehicle maker Nio Inc.’s CEO said it may list a new Nio China entity, as the cash-strapped company eyes a rebound after selling fewer vehicles during the coronavirus outbreak. Nio secured a 7 billion yuan ($989 million) investment in Nio China from state-controlled investors last month.
Lucid Motors (formerly Atieva) (private)
On May 12, Green Car Reports reported:
Lucid Air electric car: Fleet of 40 prototypes temporarily parked. Lucid has temporarily parked a fleet of 40 prototypes for its Air electric sedan and, apparently trying to make the most of the situation, it’s released a short video showing the whole fleet of cars parked together.
Lucid Air Electric Car
On May 20, BusinessWire reported: “Xpeng Motors receives production license for its self-owned Zhaoqing factory.”
Tata Motors (TTM) group (Jaguar, Land Rover)
On May 4, Auto Blog reported:
Jaguar’s next-generation XJ will be electric, but it won’t bend design rules. “We’re there to make the best-looking cars we possibly can, so the new XJ, it does have a [hood] on it. It’s a very, very elegant shape; it’s probably a little bit more traditional than the I-Pace…”
Jaguar XJ Electric Spy Shot
Other EV companies
Other EV companies I am following include Atlis Motors, Byton (private), Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (private), Didi Chuxing (DIDI), Dyson (private), Electrameccanica Vehicles Corp. (SOLO), Faraday Future (private), Fisker (private), Great Wall Motor (OTCPK:GWLLF) (OTCPK:GWLLY), GreenPower Motor Company Inc. [TSXV:GPV] (OTCQX:GPVRF), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. (OTCPK:GNZUF) (OTCPK:GNZUY), Honda (HMC, OTCPK:HNDAF), Mahindra & Mahindra (OTC:MAHDY), Nikola Corporation (private), Qiantu Motor, Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY), Suzuki Motor Corp. [TYO: 7269] (OTCPK:SZKMY) (OTCPK:SZKMF), WM Motor, Xiaopeng Motors, and Zhi Dou (private).
The list of countries and cities banning (or planning to ban) petrol and diesel vehicles include at least – Norway (2025), Netherlands (2030), China (25% EVs by 2025), Germany (?2030), Hong Kong (2030-40), Ireland (2030), Israel (2030), India (30% by 2030), Scotland (2032), UK (2035), France (2040), Taiwan (2040), Singapore (2040), Japan (2050); Rome (2024), Athens (2025), Paris (2025), London, Stuttgart, Mexico City (2025), Madrid (2025), and Amsterdam and Brussels (2030).
Autonomous Driving/Connectivity/Onboard entertainment/Ride sharing
On May 27, Bloomberg reported:
Amazon buying Zoox may save $20 billion, put Tesla on its heels. Amazon.com Inc.’s talks to buy driverless vehicle startup Zoox Inc. has analysts speculating the deal could save the e-commerce giant tens of billions a year and put auto, parcel and ride-hailing companies on their heels. Dow Jones reported that Amazon is in advanced talks to buy Zoox for less than the $3.2 billion valuation from 2018.
BNEF 2020 forecasts by fleet type
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance [BNEF] 2020 EV report
April 2020 global electric car sales were 110,000, down 30% YoY, with 2.7% global market share. Conventional car sales were down 45% in April due to COVID-19. Electric car market share for April reached 4.0% in China, 11.0% in Europe, and no updated figures for the USA.
Highlights for the month were:
- China battery charging infrastructure receives an injection of 2.7 billion yuan. That would allow for a ten-fold increase in scale versus last year.
- Forbes: Why electric vehicles are going to take over the world.
- EVs more than double Europe auto market share in 1Q.
- As battery costs plummet, lithium-ion innovation hits limits. BloombergNEF forecast battery costs falling under US$100/kWh in 2024 and hitting around US$60/kWh by 2030.
- The European Commission plans draft EU green battery rules by October ahead of EV surge. The EU is expected to need up to 18 times more lithium and five times more cobalt by 2030.
- Total and Gaussin Developing World’s 1st Full Electric Aircraft Refueller Transporter.
- Europe is now dwarfing China in EV investments.
- France makes EVs central to an $8.8 billion plan to rescue its auto industry.
- Tesla plans to introduce a new low-cost, long-life battery in its Model 3 sedan in China later this year or early next that it expects will bring the cost of electric vehicles in line with gasoline models. Tesla Battery Day will discuss new battery tech and ‘Terafactory’ – A massive scale 20x bigger than Tesla Gigafactory 1, and at a cost below $100 per kWh. Tesla drops Model 3 prices in China for subsidy inclusion then later drops other models prices. Tesla China Gigafactory 3 expansion to produce 150,000 Model Y’s pa starting some time in 2021.
- Volkswagen in talks to buy 50% of Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Holding, the parent of its EV partner JAC Motors.
- BYD delivers 15 BYD 12-metre pure electric buses to Madrid and 20 to Uruguay. BYD Han coming to Europe soon, first to use blade battery & 5G connectivity.
- Renault and Nissan said to seek more equitable sharing instead of merger. Nissan 2023 Strategy: 12 new models in 18 months, production cut by 20%.
- Volvo CEO: Pandemic will rapidly accelerate shift to electric cars. Volvo plans to launch an all-electric car every year for the next five years. By 2025, Volvo wants all-electric vehicles to represent 50% of its global sales.
- Daimler to invest in EV battery maker Farasis’ IPO, report says.
- Toyota Lexus UX 300e comes with a 10 year, 1 million-km warranty for its air-cooled 54.3-kilowatt-hour battery.
- GM says it is ‘almost there’ on million-mile electric vehicle battery.
- NIO eyes listing for new China entity as revenue takes hit.
As usual all comments are welcome.
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Disclosure: I am/we are long TESLA (TSLA), BYD CO (HK:1211), RENAULT [FR:RNO]. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: The information in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as personal financial advice.