China’s economy will continue to recover, with limited COVID-19 effect on its sovereign credit, The Paper reported, citing global credit rating agency Moody’s.
Compared with countries with the same rating level, China’s government debt will maintain at a medium level, Moody’s said at an online seminar held on Tuesday.
Global economy is resuming vitality slowly, and the road to recovery is likely to be prolonged and winding, according to Moody’s.
The agency predicted developed economies in the G20 would see their GDP shrink by 6.4 percent this year, and rebound to 4.8 percent in 2021, while emerging economies in the G20 would contract by 1.6 percent this year, then rebound to 5.9 percent in 2021.
Although some countries saw signs of recovery, economic downward risks still remained, the rating agency said, adding the epidemic is likely to come again in the second half of this year.
If so, it could lead to further lockdowns, making it more difficult for governments to help and roll out support measures. Meanwhile, longer or repeated shutdowns could drive up the number of enterprise closures, as well as the unemployment rate.
Most countries’ real output in 2021 will be lower than the level before the epidemic, Moody’s said.
The credit rating agency said the epidemic will change global credit trends. Developed economies will face heavier debt burden due to slow economic growth and weaker financial capacity.
Due to the epidemic, countries have realized that they should raise the safety of supply chains and reduce dependence on single suppliers.
And the global trade pattern will hence become more scattered, while the reorganization of supply chains will be shorter and more diversified, Moody’s said. “Though it could be healthier, however it could also lead to low efficiency and high inventory,” it added.