… is just starting, and while it currently focuses on tech and trade, it is only a matter of time before nationalist fervor takes over across every other aspect of society, economics and capital markets.
One place where tensions have been especially palpable is in the recovery following the global covid pandemic (which, of course, was started by China) which has been remarkable in China, at least for those who believe any Chinese “data…
… and which despite last night’s disappointing data dump, just boosted BofA’s Global EPS model prediction to -9% next 12 months (vs -19% consensus).
That said, as BofA notes it is China’s tech-heavy ChiNext Index that has been a lead indicator of global tech leadership, although as traders have pointed out, the ChiNext is down 9% from recent highs and US tech stock will soon follow.
However, one thing which will soon make front page headlines not just for trade war watchers but as the presidential election rhetoric kicks into high gear and where China will be a critical topic for both Trump and Biden, is that as Bank of America shows today, China now has more companies in Fortune 500 than the US.
While provocative and sure to spark much watercooler discussion, the chart above is generally irrelevant in a world where corporations have long been trans-national, and where the supremacy of corporate interests over sovereign ones has been the norm for decades.
Yet one chart which should get far more attention is the one we showed first back in May 2018, some time around 2038, roughly two decades from now, China will surpass the US in military spending, and become the world’s dominant superpower not only in population, economic growth and capital markets, but in the all important military strength and global influence as well.
And, as Thucydides Trap clearly lays out, that kind of unprecedented superpower transition – one in which the world’s reserve currency moves from state A to state B – always takes place in the context of a war.