Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Another overnight coronavirus related scare as China had to greatly up its estimates of the infected, yet no worries, the market remains as much on autopilot as the Fed remains in denial about how their actions drive market behavior. Call it denial, call it willful ignorance, call it outright lying...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Time to follow up on a technical set up I had posted publicly on bonds at the end of December 2019 in It’s not Over. The question was in regards to the reflation narrative. While equity markets kept making new highs (and continue to this day) on the heels of...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader After getting a public twitter scolding from President Trump for letting the Dow reverse into red yesterday Jay Powell was not about to let the same mistake happen twice and came fully prepared ready to jawbone today. Is the presumption ridiculous? What isn’t ridiculous these days? A president watching every...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader We’ve talked about the year 2000 comparison (Party like it’s 1999). In 2020 markets went onto a similar structural tear just having rammed relentlessly higher. In 2000 markets famously topped in March following the Fed’s Y2K inspired liquidity injections in 1999 as markets had vastly disconnected from fundamental reality. Now...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Every once in a while the truth shines through and we got a few doses of it today. Recently critics who suggested that the Fed’s QE policies artificially elevate asset prices were dismissed as QE conspiracists, but the truth is that central bank policies are directly responsible for the asset...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Since 1900 markets have had their fair share of crashes. Mind you crashes don’t happen that often, in fact crashes are very rare. You know what’s also very rare? A particular party being in power preceding crashes. Every single time, making them the crash party. Oh don’t start hating on...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Oh how I miss George Carlin. Yes he was mainly known as a stand up comedian, but he was more than that, much more. He was a social critic, he challenged that status quo, he dared to go where society wasn’t prepared to go: Look at ourselves critically. He did...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Once again they took all the pain away. What looked like the beginning of a larger market correction, amid renewed reductions in global growth outlooks, was again aborted in its tracks by renewed panic interventions by central banks, namely the PBOC which injected vast amounts of liquidity, cut rates and...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader In context of the week’s market gains Friday’s decline was minor, but context may matter. While bears again got the rug pulled from under them as markets got a new dousing of central bank liquidity, beginning with PBOC intervention on Monday and Tuesday and ongoing rounds of larger repo operations...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Are central banks, in their desperate quest to intervene big time pig time all the time to extend the business cycle at all costs, setting up bulls for a dive off of the proverbial cliff? Consider: We’re in the longest post war economic expansion, unemployment is at 3.6%, wages grew...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader New highs again for tech as $NDX keeps relentlessly crawling higher, now 16.2% extended above its 200MA. As outlined yesterday’s it’s a key warning signal. This latest rally has produced another warning signal and that is the leadership in $NDX is narrowing dramatically. Narrowing leadership has spelled trouble for $NDX in...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Once again investors are made to believe that nothing matters. Only 2 trading days after Friday’s sell off $NDX made new all time history highs. Only 3 days after Friday’s sell-off $SPX made a new all time closing high. Only 4 days after Friday’s sell off $DJIA, $SPX and $NDX...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Yesterday $TSLA was screaming all the way to $968. Once of those once in a lifetime vertical bubble moves. Im TSLA Buy Panic I had warned that the move was not sustainable based on technical extensions and a reversion move was coming. One of the technical targets I had outlined was...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Let the news and headlines speak for themselves, but read them carefully, there’s a point to all of them: “Techs are back with a big vengeance. People continue to chase momentum,” said Brian Conroy, head of listed trading at J.P. Morgan. “It’s phenomenal,” said Charles Payne, head analyst at Wall...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Each bubble has its poster child. Is $TLSA it this time?I can’t say, but I can spot a buy panic when I see one. This morning $TSLA seems to have peaked for the moment at $940. Absolute vertical panic buying, it’s basically a reversion train wreck waiting to happen, technically...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Yesterday Mohamed El-Erian advised investors not to buy the dip this time. What do they do? Jam fully into markets again. The addicts can’t be stopped. And so the market follows the script of every bubble. Buy till you die with the risks unseen. Each bubble has its poster child...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader Containment indeed. The PBOC went into full intervention mode last night trying to minimize the market damage that had been building in futures for the week that Chinese markets were closed.Rate cuts on overnight reserves, record liquidity injections, and of course the old time favorite: Ban short selling. Financial market...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader The fight for containment is on and so is the effort at damage control. Chinese markets are set to open again tomorrow having been closed for days. As has become common practice in our new normal any sign of trouble and central banks stop in to support markets. Hence no...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader What if bears were right all along? What if it’s not different this time? What if this Fed liquidity inspired rally produced precisely the kind of exuberant final thrust we often see at the end of business cycles? After all, people were really bullish in 2007, people were really bullish in...
Sven Henrich via Northman Trader For Fintwit the big news last night was not that the Senate voted not to call witnesses (I don’t think anybody was surprised by that) nor that markets had dropped hard following over more uncertainty about the spreading coronavirus, no, it was the bombshell that popular blogger Zerohedge’s twitter account...