The international aerospace and defense market is expected to grow to $8.7 trillion in the next ten years, according to research from Boeing, as carriers look to replace aging fleets and governments around the globe modernize their military.
The outlook is an increase over Boeing’s prediction last year that the market’s valuation would grow to $8.1 trillion by 2027.
Demand for commercial jets is expected to be $3.1 trillion through 2028. That will continue to grow as increased airline travel spurs the need for over 44,000 new planes over the next two decades.
Meanwhile, defense spending is estimated to be $2.5 trillion in the same time frame, according to the Boeing Market Outlook.
“Aerospace and defense continues to be a healthy and growing industry over the long term, boosted by strong fundamentals across the commercial, defense and services sectors and demand that is geographically-diverse and more balanced between replacement and growth than ever before,” CFO Greg Smith said in a statement.
Boeing’s shares rose in Wall Street trading after the release of the study.
A $6.8 trillion aircraft market over the next two decades indicates the industry will sustain “its unprecedented streak of profitable expansion,” said Randy Tinseth, the Chicago-based manufacturer’s vice president of commercial marketing.
Of the total new airplane deliveries expected in the coming years, 44 percent will be to replace older jets and the rest will address the looming traffic growth. China will account for 40 percent of all shipments through 2038, Boeing said, with North America and Europe taking the next two spots.
Single-aisle jets, like Boeing’s beleaguered 737 Max, will remain the largest segment. The fleet is currently grounded across the globe as the company seeks to remedy the issues that led to two fatal crashes.
The Federal Aviation Administration is reportedly preparing to launch test flights with Boeing’s software update.