The biggest financial, economic and political event of 2020 will undoubtedly be the US presidential election in November, but even without it, this year is shaping up to especially busy. Below we list the key global events in the upcoming 365 days.
- Wednesday, January 1: – Terms of newly appointed ECB Executive Board Members Panetta and Schnabel begin.
- January: US-China – Potential signing of Phase One trade agreement. Following the announcement on December 13 of a Phase One trade agreement, the US and China could finalize and sign the agreement.
- January: Thailand – Readings of the FY2020 budget in Parliament.
- Thursday, January 9: France – Pension reform negotiations. Start of the second round of negotiations between the government and trade unions on the pension reform.
- Tuesday, January 14: United States – Comments due on proposed tariffs on imports from France. The US Trade Representative proposed tariffs on imports from France as part of a Section 301 investigation into France’s digital services tax. Final comments are due on January 14, at which point the USTR could announce a decision on how it is moving forward with the issue.
- Monday, January 20: EU – EU Commission to review EU fiscal framework.
- Monday, January 20-21: Japan – BoJ monetary policy meeting.
- Thursday, January 23: EU – ECB Governing Council meeting.
- Sunday, January 26: Peru — Extraordinary Congressional Election. Peruvians will elect new members of Congress for all 130 congressional seats, whose terms will end in July 2021.
- Wednesday, January 29: United States – FOMC meeting statement.
- Thursday, January 30: UK – BoE MPC meeting (and monetary policy report).
- Friday, January 31: UK – Article 50 extension ends under current legislation. On current legislation, the UK’s latest Article 50 extension ends on this date. Given that MPs in the House of Commons have already passed the second reading of PM Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement Bill, we expect domestic ratification of the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU to be completed well in advance of 31 January. On that basis, the UK will have formally left the EU (on the status quo terms embodied in the post-Brexit transition period) as of 1 February.
- Early February: Singapore – Budget statement.
- Monday, February 3: United States – Iowa Democratic Caucus. First contest for the Democratic nomination for President. Although Iowa is a relatively small state and awards only 1% of delegates, candidates’ performance in the contest in the past has affected the direction and outcome of campaigns.
- Tuesday, February 11: United States – New Hampshire Democratic Primary. Second contest for the Democratic nomination for President. Although New Hampshire is a relatively small state and awards < 1% of delegates, candidates’ performance in the contest in the past has affected the direction and outcome of campaigns.
- Early March: China – The National People’s Congress. The annual NPC is scheduled to start early March and is likely to last around 2 weeks. A key thing to watch will be Premier Li’s annual government report, which will include official economic targets for 2020, including GDP growth, CPI inflation and fiscal deficits (although those targets were set during closed-door policy meetings in the preceding December, they are not publicly announced until the NPC). The report will also set the broad tone of economic policy direction for the rest of the year. Main government officials will also hold press conferences on the sidelines, giving further color on their policy plans.
- Monday, March 2: Israel – General elections. These elections will be the third in less than a year after coalition talks failed following the general elections on April 9 and September 17, 2019. Opinion polls suggest that the different blocs and parties are likely to maintain roughly the same share of seats they have in the Knesset, implying that the stalemate could continue. While political uncertainty appears likely to remain high, we think that the impact of that uncertainty on Israeli asset prices will be relatively limited and short-lived.
- Tuesday, March 3: United States – Super Tuesday Democratic primaries. Fourteen states hold contests for the Democratic nomination for President, awarding 1/3 of all delegates. With the addition of California (which awards 10% of all delegates) to Super Tuesday this year, far more delegates will have been pledged by this date compared to in 2016.
- Thursday, March 12: EU – ECB Governing Council meeting.
- Sunday, March 15-16: UK – BoE Governor Carney last day in office. BoE Governor Bailey first day in office.
- Wednesday, March 18: United States – FOMC meeting statement (and Summary of Economic Projections).
- Thursday, March 26-27: EU – European Council.
- Thursday, March 26: UK – BoE MPC meeting.
- Wednesday, April 15: Korea: Parliamentary elections.
- Sunday, April 26: Chile – Constitutional Referendum. Chileans will vote on two questions. First, on whether they want a new constitution. Second, on whether the new constitution should be drafted by either a “Constitutional Convention” (composed of members elected exclusively for the Convention) or a “Mixed Constitutional Convention” (composed of 50% newly elected members and 50% currently sitting members of Congress).
- Monday, April 27-28: Japan – BoJ monetary policy meeting.
- Wednesday, April 29: United States – FOMC meeting statement.
- Thursday, April 30: EU – ECB Governing Council meeting.
- May: Australia – Federal budget released.
- Thursday, May 7: UK – BoE MPC meeting.
- Sunday, May 10: Poland – Presidential elections. While the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) retained its parliamentary majority following the elections in autumn 2019, it nevertheless lost its senate majority. If the current incumbent PiS candidate, President Andrzej Duda, is not re-elected, it could further limit the PiS ability to pass legislation, as its parliamentary majority is insufficient to override presidential vetoes.
- First half of 2020: United States – Federal Reserve reports on framework review. Federal Reserve policymakers plan to report findings from their review of monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication “during the first half of 2020.”
- June: EU-UK – EU-UK Summit.
- Thursday, June 4: EU – ECB Governing Council meeting.
- June 10-12: G7 summit in the United States.
- Wednesday, June 10: United States – FOMC meeting statement (and Summary of Economic Projections).
- June 18-19: EU – European Council.
- Thursday, June 18: UK – BoE MPC meeting.
- By July: France – Submission of pension reform to the Parliament.
- Wednesday, July 1: UK – Deadline to request an extension to the transition period under current legislation. Under the terms of the existing Withdrawal Agreement, the UK must request any extension of the transition period (for up to one or two years, beyond December 2020) by 1 July.
- Monday, July 13-16: United States – Democratic National Convention. The Democratic National Convention takes place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Party will officially nominate its candidate for President.
- Tuesday, July 14-15: Japan – BoJ monetary policy meeting.
- Thursday, July 16: EU – ECB Governing Council meeting.
- July 24 – August 9: Japan – Tokyo 2020 Olympics.
- Wednesday, July 29: United States – FOMC meeting statement.
- Thursday, August 6: UK – BoE MPC meeting (and monetary policy report).
- Monday, August 24-27: United States – Republican National Convention. The Republican National Convention takes place in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Party will officially nominate its candidate for President.
- Thursday, September 10: EU – ECB Governing Council meeting.
- Wednesday, September 16: United States – FOMC meeting statement (and Summary of Economic Projections).
- Thursday, September 17: UK: BoE MPC meeting.
- Tuesday, September 29: United States – First Presidential debate. Commission on Presidential Debates hosts first of three scheduled debates between the Republican and Democratic candidates for President.
- Thursday, October 1: United States – FY2021 begins.
- Sunday, October 11: Lithuania – Parliamentary elections, first round.
- Thursday, October 15: EU – Deadline Draft Budgetary Plans 2021.
- Thursday, October 15-16: EU – European Council.
- Sunday, October 25: Chile – Constitutional Convention Election. If the majority votes in favor of a new constitution on the April 26 referendum, members of the constitutional convention will be elected alongside municipal and regional elections on October 25.
- Wednesday, October 28-29: Japan – BoJ monetary policy meeting.
- Thursday, October 29: EU – ECB Governing Council meeting.
- Tuesday, November 3: United States – Election Day. Voters elect the President, House of Representatives, 35 senators as well as state and local officials.
- Thursday, November 5: UK – BoE MPC meeting (and monetary policy report).
- Thursday, November 5: United States – FOMC meeting statement.
- Sunday, November 15: EU – National Draft Budgetary Plans 2021.
- By November 21: New Zealand – Latest date for election. Election is due by November 21 at the latest. Neither major party has announced their key policy platforms, and polling suggests the race is likely to be tight.
- November 21-22: G20 summit in Saudi Arabia.
- November (provisional): Romania – Legislative Elections. Romania is scheduled to go to the polls in late 2020, provided that the Parliament is not dissolved earlier. The latest polling data projects the current ruling party (PNL) to be in lead at around 40% and on an upward trajectory, with the former ruling party and main contender’s (PSD) share bottoming out at 20%.
- Thursday, December 10: EU – ECB Governing Council meeting.
- Thursday, December 10-11: European Council.
- Wednesday, December 16: United States – FOMC meeting statement (and Summary of Economic Projections).
- Thursday, December 17: UK – BoE MPC meeting.
- Thursday, December 31: UK – Brexit transition period ends. If the UK has not sought an extension of the transition period beyond December 2020, the status quo terms of the UK’s initial post-Brexit arrangements come to an end on this date.
Source: Goldman Sachs