In this episode, we discuss the danger of financial products such as the Daily 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN, the potential end of the 2020 bull market in stocks, Howard Mark’s recent quotes on managing risk & market cycles, how a Trend Following mentality can have a positive affect on your world-view, patience for your system vs patience for an individual position, and why needing to ‘agree’ with your trades can be a dangerous idea. Questions we answer this week include: How do you avoid losing large open profits during a parabolic move? Is CAGR a good measure of performance?
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0:00 – Intro
3:15 – Macro recap from Niels
4:10 – Weekly review of returns
11:25 – Howard Marks quotes on risk management and market cycles
29:11 – Patience for your system vs for an individual position
34:36 – Q1; Rene: How do you avoid losing a big profit during a parabolic move?
40:10 – Q2 & Q3; Peregrin: Do you have any evidence of systems working better when its positions match our opinion of the macro ‘story’? Does Trend Following system alert its manager to crowd opinions they might otherwise be unaware of?
48:48 – Q4; Maurigus: Is CAGR a good measure of performance?
57:06 – Performance recap